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Why Bother Owning Non-U.S. Stocks?

 

Interessante Grafik:

The chart and table on page one illustrate this point. Since 1977 there have been eight cycles where the annual performance differential between the U.S. and non-U.S. stock markets has been at least seven percent. Most of the performance variation can be attributed to the change in relative valuations between the U.S. and non-U.S. stock markets. The red dashed lines illustrate this fact. U.S. stocks currently sell at about a 30 percent premium to non-U.S. stocks—near an all-time high. As a result, we think it is highly likely over the next five to 10 years non-U.S. stocks will outperform U.S. stocks and investors should embrace non-U.S. stocks.

GVC-2Q2016-Newsletter-e1468587482253-1024x941.jpg

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Gaspar

Schon Kosto wusste, dass US-Aktien besser laufen. Tatsächlich werden US-Aktien derzeit besser bewertet. Mir fallen da z.B. die Energiewerte auf. Aber auch bei den Konsumwerten liegen die Amis vorn. Die Unternehmen operieren in den gleichen Märkten. Der Trend kann noch lange anhalten.

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Earnings Are Set to Fall. Again.

 

Earnings season is about two-thirds over and it looks to be another one for falling earnings. Earnings for the energy sector are expected to fall by 87%. Even without energy, earnings for the S&P 500 are expected to rise by 1.8%.

With just over two-thirds of S&P 500 companies reporting results, adjusted earnings—which exclude various items deemed unusual—are expected to fall for the fourth straight quarter, down 2.6% from the same period last year, according to Thomson Reuters. Revenues are also forecast to slip 0.4%, the sixth straight quarterly decline.

The pain is broad-based: Only the consumer-discretionary, health-care and utilities sectors are expected to see profits grow by more than 5%. Quarterly earnings are forecast to decline by 87% for energy companies, 3.6% for financial firms and 1.4% for telecommunications companies, according to Thomson Reuters.

Energy companies have been suffering for more than a year, with oil prices collapsing from around $115 a barrel in mid-2014 to a low of $27 in January. But profit declines are slowing as prices have somewhat rebounded to around $40 a barrel, and many analysts expect results to keep improving in the third and fourth quarters.

Excluding the hard-hit energy sector, second-quarter earnings are expected to rise by a still-slow 1.8%, while revenues are likely to increase about 2.6%, Thomson Reuters said.

Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters now forecast that the third quarter will barely show profit growth, predicting an average increase of 0.3% for companies in the S&P 500 compared with expectations of 2% growth a month ago. Earnings forecasts often become less optimistic as a quarter progresses.

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John Silver

Soros wettet eine Milliarde Dollar auf einen Crash

Von: Holger Zschäpitz | Stand: 17:26 Uhr | Lesedauer: 4 Minuten

 

Jetzt hat sich George Soros den denkbar größten Gegner ausgesucht. Er, der als einer der erfolgreichsten Investoren gilt, nimmt die Wall Street ins Visier. Wie jetzt bekannt wurde, wettet der 86-Jährige massiv gegen den S&P 500 – den wichtigsten amerikanischen Aktienindex.

 

Soros erhöhte die Zahl der Optionen von 2,1 Millionen zum Ende des ersten Quartals auf nun gut vier Millionen Papiere. Damit setzt die Investorenlegende knapp 840 Millionen Dollar auf einen Crash an der Wall Street. Das entspricht knapp vier Prozent seines auf etwa 25 Milliarden Dollar geschätzten Vermögens.

...

https://beta.welt.de/finanzen/article157699975/Soros-wettet-eine-Milliarde-Dollar-auf-einen-Crash.html

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TorstenTiedt

Hallo,

 

zum Thema Entwicklung von Gewinn und Dividenden in den USA habe ich mir vor kurzem ebenfalls Gedanken gemacht und diese Analyse dazu geschrieben:

 

http://wachstumswert...steigerung.html

 

Vielleicht für den ein oder anderen interessant.

 

Gruß,

 

Torsten

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ebdem

Danke für den Beitrag. Dazu fällt mir folgender Kommentar der TGV ein ;).

 

Hier noch etwas zum Thema Aktionärsbeteiligung:

Kiss it goodbye, the great buyback boom is on the wane: James Saft

U.S. company stock buybacks are down 21 percent in the first seven months of 2016 compared to the same period a year earlier, according to TrimTabs Investment Research, a fall driven in part by five consecutive quarters of year-over-year earnings declines among S&P 500 stocks.

 

Over the first six months of the year S&P 500 companies paid out 112 percent of their earnings in the form of either dividends or share buybacks. That, Damodaran argues, is the kind of figure you might expect to see when a recession had suddenly crimped company cashflows, not during a very long-running, if tepid, expansion.

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TorstenTiedt

Over the first six months of the year S&P 500 companies paid out 112 percent of their earnings in the form of either dividends or share buybacks. That, Damodaran argues, is the kind of figure you might expect to see when a recession had suddenly crimped company cashflows, not during a very long-running, if tepid, expansion.

 

Hallo,

 

Aktienrückkäufe hatte ich in meiner Analyse nicht berücksichtigt. Auf den ersten Blick sieht das ganze so noch etwas "dramatischer" aus. Allerdings ist der Aktienrückkauf zunächst ein Aktivtausch, so dass - im Gegensatz zur Dividende - Vermögen nicht auf Nimmerwiedersehen das Unternehmen verlässt.

 

 

Gruß!

 

Torsten

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Brezel

Allerdings ist der Aktienrückkauf zunächst ein Aktivtausch, so dass - im Gegensatz zur Dividende - Vermögen nicht auf Nimmerwiedersehen das Unternehmen verlässt.

 

Ist es nicht eher eine Bilanzverkürzung mit Erhöhung des FK-Hebels?

 

Kasse weniger und EK weniger... Das Cash ist aus dem Unternehmen raus, aber der einzelne Aktienanteil wird gewichtiger (weil die Gesamtzahl der Aktien sinkt).

 

 

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TorstenTiedt

Allerdings ist der Aktienrückkauf zunächst ein Aktivtausch, so dass - im Gegensatz zur Dividende - Vermögen nicht auf Nimmerwiedersehen das Unternehmen verlässt.

 

Ist es nicht eher eine Bilanzverkürzung mit Erhöhung des FK-Hebels?

 

Kasse weniger und EK weniger... Das Cash ist aus dem Unternehmen raus, aber der einzelne Aktienanteil wird gewichtiger (weil die Gesamtzahl der Aktien sinkt).

 

 

Hallo Brezel,

 

deine Anmerkung ist korrekt, wenn die gekauften Aktien nicht aktiviert - sprich ins Umlaufvermögen gebucht - werden, sondern das EK - genauer: das gezeichnete Kapital - herabgesetzt wird. Das wird beim Rückkauf wohl meist der Fall sein. Habe ich jetzt auf die Schnelle mal nachgelesen, weil meine Bilanzierungskenntnisse bereits Staub angesetzt haben, und zwar hier:

 

http://www.daswirtschaftslexikon.com/d/aktienr%C3%BCckkauf/aktienr%C3%BCckkauf.htm#AK80H4

 

Gruß!

 

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ebdem

The Economy Is Improving—Gradually

Last Friday, the government said that the U.S. economy created 151,000 net new jobs last month. That was a bit below Wall Street’s estimate of 180,000. Even though the jobs report missed expectation, the figure is still basically within the trend of the last few years. There’s nothing really surprising here. For the third month in a row, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.9%.

 

The big takeaway is that the economy is slowly improving. Sure, it’s certainly not great. But it’s getting better. With each jobs report, I’ve been keeping a close eye on wages. The good news is that Americans are finally getting a pay raise. It’s been years since we could say that.

 

Over the last year, average hourly earnings increased by 2.4%. Considering where the economy had been, that’s not bad. Importantly, it’s more than the rate of inflation. You can be sure that Janet Yellen and her friends at the Fed are watching this figure, because any hint that we’re at full employment (meaning employers have to pay more to get workers) will spur the Fed to action. For years, the safe bet was to assume the Fed wouldn’t do anything. That’s no longer the case.

 

I prefer to ignore the talking heads and listen to the one opinion that truly matters—the bond market’s. Here we can also see that the bond market is waking up to the reality of a Fed rate hike.

 

The key to watch is the two-year yield. Two months ago, the two-year was yielding just 0.56%. Now it’s up to 0.78%. One of my favorite economic indicators, the spread between the 2- and 10-year Treasuries, recently dropped below 80 basis points for the first time in nearly nine years. Don’t worry. We’re still a long way from the danger zone. The Fed will have to raise rates a few more times before a recession is near.

 

 

The Consumer Is Pulling the Economy Along

Last week, the Commerce Department reported that personal spending rose 0.3% in July. Also, the figure for June was revised upward to an increase of 0.5%. This is good news for the economy, and it suggests that the encouraging trend for consumer spending we saw in Q2 is still going. The Q2 GDP report showed consumer spending rising at an annualized rate of 4.4%. That’s the fastest pace in two years.

 

What about Q3? We’re already three-fourths done with the quarter, and things are looking good. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow currently estimates the economy grew by 3.5% in Q3. We’ll get our first look at the GDP data at the end of next month. But before that happens, we’ll get a look at Q3 earnings reports. According to S&P, the third-quarter earnings season looks to snap the S&P 500’s seven-quarter streak of falling profits. For Q2, operating earnings for the S&P 500 fell by 1.2%, and that was the best quarter of the last seven.

 

Analysts currently expect the S&P 500 to earn $29.61 for Q3 (that’s the index-adjusted number). That would be an all-time high, and it would be an increase of 16.4% over last year’s Q3. The earnings outlook will be helped by an expected 34% increase in healthcare profits, and a 16% increase in profits for tech stocks. Right now, the S&P 500 is going for 16.4 times next year’s earnings, which is slightly rich, but not too worrying.

 

I’m also pleased to see the companies are finally reducing their cash piles. Let me rephrase that. Companies are finally reducing their gigantic, stupendous cash mountains. Until now, companies were perfectly happy to let that money grow, or spending some on dividends and share buybacks. Now they’re putting their money to use by growing their businesses. That’s a very good sign.

 

Crossing-Wallstreet Blog

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The Charting New Year Started on February 11

Financial markets are really all about trends. Once a trend is established, it can stay in place a long time, longer than you thought possible. But like all good things, trends come to an end.

 

As far as the stock market’s concerned, the new year began on February 11. I realize that sounds odd, but hear me out. That’s because February 11 is when all the current trends started—and these trends have been as trendy as ever lately. The old Wall Street saying is that the “trend is your friend.” Actually, I would say the “trend is your frenemy” because you never know when it will end.

 

On February 11, the S&P 500 touched a two-year low of 1,810. The index first tested and then dropped below the “Tchaikovsky Low” of 1,812 reached a few weeks before. The first six weeks of this year marked the worst start to a year in the history of the S&P 500. Not only did stocks bottom out on February 11, but so did oil. West Texas Crude closed at $27.30 per barrel. That was a 12-year low. In 20 months, oil fell roughly by three-fourths.

 

Along with the drop in oil, the junk-bond market fell flat on its face. Junk bonds were demanding a massive premium of nearly 9% over other bonds. That’s gigantic. At that time, the futures market had basically written off the idea of the Fed hiking rates in 2016 or 2017. Congress was even asking Janet Yellen about negative rates.

 

All of these events are connected by one factor—a dire fear of taking risk. The trend ever since then, when the technical new year began, has been a reversing of that. Over the last eight months, the constant trend has been one of investors warming up to more and more risk.

 

big10142016a.gif

 

Not only is this true between the markets, but we also see it within the stock market. On February 11, high-beta stocks started leading the broader market, as did financial stocks. The chart above shows how soundly high beta has beaten low vol. In the weeks leading up to February 11, bank stocks had been demolished. No rate hikes means no profit for Johnny Lender. Small-cap stocks, which tend to be riskier, got a slight head start and started leading the market on February 10.

 

What’s also part of this trend is the shift away from conservative sectors like Utilities and high-quality stocks and towards economically cyclical sectors. In particular, this means Energy, Materials and Industrials. Oil recently broke above $51 per barrel. Frankly, the shift from high-quality areas is probably impacting our Buy List as a whole this year.

 

I won’t predict how long this trend will play out. That’s a game not worth playing. But I want investors to understand what’s happening. Overall, an appetite for more risk is a good thing. But like many things, too much of it can be very bad.

Quelle

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Warlock

Ich denke man darf das nicht überbewerten. Wenn ich das richtig verstanden habe liegen die Abweichungen seid 50 Jahren in einem Korridor von -1,00% bis 1,50%.

 

Zu bedenken ist auch das die USA ein Land sind in dem Kapital im Vergleich zu Europa eher höher "verzinst" wird. Damit meine ich das die stärker ausgeprägten Sozialsysteme in Europa einen größeren Anteil der Unternehemsgewinne abschöpfen.

 

Die restlichen Weltregionen sind bis auf Japan über die letzten 50 Jahre eh nicht repräsentativ vergleichbar, da es keine mit Europa oder Nordamerika wirtschaftlich vergleichbaren Regionen gibt.

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