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duarte

Portfolios (DAX, S&P500, Nasdaq, US Stocks)

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duarte
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Ich bin Portugiesisch und ich kann nicht Deutsch sprechen, also werde ich in Englisch zu schreiben. Ich schrieb den text mit hilfe von google translate. Ich verstehe was sie sagen. Muss ein problem mit der grammatik haben. :)

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Before I talk about my portfolios, I will talk about my goals.

 

My first goal is to try to respond as best as possible to what the market is doing and act appropriately. I am talking about trend-following discipline.

 

When i expect the market will go up, my market posture is bullish. That means, i´m buying stocks and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). My market posture remains bullish until my "stop" is reached.

 

When i expect the market will go down,my market posture is bearish. That means, i´m buying inverse Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). My market posture remains bearish until my "stop" is reached.

 

When i don't expect anything, my market posture is neutral. That means, i´m not buying.

 

My second goal is to get better knowledge about some ETFs that i usually don´t trade. (For example: EXS1, DXSN,UPRO, SPXU, TQQQ, SQQQ)

 

My third goal is to explain in simple terms the reasons for my decisions.

 

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I determine my market posture through a careful analysis of the charts. I observe the market direction - up, down or sideways – with the S&P 500 index, Nasdaq 100 index, Dow Jones index, MSCI ACWI index, Dax index or other leader index where the stock acts. Acting in concert with the market direction, i increase my odds of success.

 

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I pick stocks to buy based on a careful analysis of the historical charts. I also consider other factors, such as net cash from operating activities, volume and beta.

 

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I´m going to have 8 independent portfolios, of which the first 7 are long/short trend-following with ETFs of different leverage, and the eighth is a long trend-following with US stocks. Plus: I have separate stop-loss limits for each ETF/stock ,which are influenced by portfolio volatility/leverage and my perception of trend strength and risk.

 

Portfolio 1: 1x DAX ETF Portfolio (100% of the benchmark's daily performance)

 

... uses ISHARES DAX (DE) (EXS1) ETF or DB X-TRACKERS SHORTDAX (DXSN) ETF

 

Portfolio 2: 1x S&P 500 ETF Portfolio (100% of the benchmark's daily performance)

 

... uses S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY) ETF or ProShares Short S&P 500 Fund (SH) ETF

 

Portfolio 3: 2x S&P 500 Leveraged ETF Portfolio (200% of the benchmark's daily performance)

 

... uses ProShares Ultra S&P 500 Fund (SSO) ETF or ProShares Ultra Short S&P500 (SDS) ETF

 

Portfolio 4: 3x S&P 500 Leveraged ETF Portfolio (300% of the benchmark's daily performance)

 

... uses ProSharesUltraPro S&P 500 (UPRO) ETF or ProShares UltraPro Short S&P500 (SPXU) ETF

 

Portfolio 5: 1x Nasdaq 100 ETF Portfolio (100% of the benchmark's daily performance)

 

... uses ProShares QQQ Trust (QQQ) ETF or ProShares Short QQQ Fund (PSQ) ETF

 

Portfolio 6: 2x Nasdaq 100 Leveraged ETF Portfolio (200% of the benchmark's daily performance)

 

... uses ProSharesUltra QQQ Fund (QLD) ETF or ProShares Ultra Short QQQ (QID) ETF

 

Portfolio 7: 3x Nasdaq 100 Leveraged ETF Portfolio (300% of the benchmark's daily performance)

 

... uses ProSharesUltraPro QQQ (TQQQ) ETF or ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (SQQQ) ETF

 

Portfolio 8: US Stock Portfolio

 

... is composed by 5 US stocks.

 

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I consider 5 EUR or 5 USD per buy and sell order.

 

Broker example http://www.interactivebrokers.com

 

The monetary value of each position is $ 4000 or € 3200.

 

Rule:

 

All entries and emergency stops must be sent to this "thema " , with a minimum of 5 minutes before the next market opening and automatically placed on the market after the market opens.

 

 

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BarrenWuffet
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So what's your question exactly?

 

My first goal is to try to respond as best as possible to what the market is doing and act appropriately.

 

If you don't want to follow the markets like a puppy dog, you'll need to pre-anticipate the future development...good luck.

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duarte
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So what's your question exactly?

 

My first goal is to try to respond as best as possible to what the market is doing and act appropriately.

 

If you don't want to follow the markets like a puppy dog, you'll need to pre-anticipate the future development...good luck.

 

I'll try pre-anticipate the future development, but without trying to be the first to guess a reversal. Thank you.

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klausk
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@duarte, I use a similar style -- "the trend is your friend" -- but I generally don't exit a position because an arbitrary stop has been reached. Ride the surf until the market tells you it's about to break.

 

When an uptrend deteriorates into wild swings, often with very low volume, or when a certain level ("resistance") cannot be overcome after two or three attempts, consider selling. Likewise in a downtrend: when selling has softened and there seems to be no downward pressure anymore. Just wait for a small but decisive breakout (with good volume).

 

As to brokers: If you intend to focus on US stocks/ETFs but don't expect to trade much InteractiveBrokers may not be your best choice (unbeatably low commissions but: minimum $5000 to open, minimum commissions $10/month, data fee of $10/month, waived when you generate $30 in commissions that month). Scottrade, TD Ameritrade or Fidelity may be alternatives.

 

Again if you focus on the US and need a good tool to find the gems, consider this.

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duarte
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@duarte, I use a similar style -- "the trend is your friend" -- but I generally don't exit a position because an arbitrary stop has been reached. Ride the surf until the market tells you it's about to break.

 

When an uptrend deteriorates into wild swings, often with very low volume, or when a certain level ("resistance") cannot be overcome after two or three attempts, consider selling. Likewise in a downtrend: when selling has softened and there seems to be no downward pressure anymore. Just wait for a small but decisive breakout (with good volume).

 

As to brokers: If you intend to focus on US stocks/ETFs but don't expect to trade much InteractiveBrokers may not be your best choice (unbeatably low commissions but: minimum $5000 to open, minimum commissions $10/month, data fee of $10/month, waived when you generate $30 in commissions that month). Scottrade, TD Ameritrade or Fidelity may be alternatives.

 

Again if you focus on the US and need a good tool to find the gems, consider this.

 

Thank you. Sometimes I consider the previous low to place the stop price. It is easier to see when it starts, but I agree with you.

 

For fundamental data I usually use Zacks. http://www.zacks.com

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duarte
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Die deutsche sprache ist schwer zu lernen, die worte sind schwer auszusprechen.

Ich Werde versuchen zu lernen.

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Nudelesser

Welcome Duarte, it is great to have a Portugese investment colleague on board! Hope you will provide us with some first hand advice on when it is time to buy Portugese stocks. ;) As our European politicians have so much troubles to talk to each other it is high time that we as investors unite :thumbsup:

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duarte
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Welcome Duarte, it is great to have a Portugese investment colleague on board! Hope you will provide us with some first hand advice on when it is time to buy Portugese stocks. ;) As our European politicians have so much troubles to talk to each other it is high time that we as investors unite :thumbsup:

 

Thanks. I use google translate. You can write in german if you wish.

 

I don't invest in the portuguese stock market for a long time. I invest more in the U.S.market. I am bit confused about portuguese stock market. I don´t know if it goes up or down. Can you trade the portuguese stock market using a german bank? A portuguese citizen can easily open a brokerage account in Germany?

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Ca$hflow

Can you trade the portuguese stock market using a german bank?

In most cases you can trade portuguese stocks in Germany (Xetra or Frankfurt stock market). Furhermore portuguese stocks from the PSI 20 index belongs to the trading system of Euronext. Every major broker firm offers you access to Euronext.

 

A portuguese citizen can easily open a brokerage account in Germany?

Yes normally it shouldn't cause any problems. However, you should ask yourself, if it makes sense for you to open an account in Germany if there's no language support (e.g. details about the trading system itself or questions about taxation). But there are a lot of international brokerage firms. As you have already mentioned the first one that comes into my mind is "interactive brokers" It's a real cheap online discount broker with a multitude of different features like stock trading (around the whole world), short-selling, forex trading, options, furures, US-bonds, plenty of sales orders and so on.... so why do you want to open a brokerage account in Germany?

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duarte
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Brokerage commissions are expensive in Portugal for trading in another european country. Approximately 14,95 EUR to 20,00 EUR per buy and sell transaction. Is it possible to short the portuguese stock in germany? In Portugal is only possible using derivative instruments (CFDs).

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klausk

Is it possible to short the portuguese stock in germany? In Portugal is only possible using derivative instruments (CFDs).

Could there be a Portuguese law against shortselling? If that were true a foreign broker might not be able to help you.

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duarte
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Could there be a Portuguese law against shortselling? If that were true a foreign broker might not be able to help you.

 

Sometimes i read in the news that foreign hedge funds are shorting portuguese stocks. I think might be possible.

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duarte
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When the S&P 500 closes August at a 12-month high, it has suffered during September. Usually, the decline was limited to a month or two, as it tended to head back to a new high relatively quickly.

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duarte
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afteragoodaugust.png

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klausk

Could there be a Portuguese law against shortselling? If that were true a foreign broker might not be able to help you.

Sometines i read in the news that foreign hedge funds are shorting portuguese stocks. I think might be possible.

Du kannst selbst am besten checken, ob Shortselling in Portugal verboten ist.

 

Google meint:

http://www.securitieslendingtimes.com/securitieslendingnews/regulationarticle.php?article_id=233

http://www.iberianlawyer.com/banking-a-finance/3666-new-european-rules-on-short-selling-and-credit-default-swaps-portugal

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duarte
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Du kannst selbst am besten checken, ob Shortselling in Portugal verboten ist.

 

Google meint:

http://www.securitie...?article_id=233

http://www.iberianla...-swaps-portugal

It is forbidden in Portugal to hold overnight short positions, but sometimes appears in the news that someone is shorting portuguese stocks.

 

Old News:

http://translate.google.pt/translate?hl=pt-PT&sl=pt&tl=de&u=htt

http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=pt-PT&sl=pt&tl

Recent News:

JP Morgan bet against portuguese companies

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duarte
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Emergency stop

 

The emergency stop that I use is activated if the price moves downwards too far.

Because of the high volatility of the US Stocks and 300% leveraged ETFs, the stop is placed farther away from the current price, implies that the portfolios that use these assets have higher risk.

When my uncertainty is higher or plan to sell, the stop is closer to the current price.

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Hasenhirn

Hello and welcome, duarte

 

Sorry but would you like to explain again what exactly the point of this thread is, or is going to be? What is the fundamental question you would like to discuss with the forum? Or in other words, might it be a better idea to describe your portfolio and trading strategy under "Technische Analyse, Fundamentalanalyse, Handelsstrategien" or as a "Musterdepot"? Only a friendly suggestion; it is entirely possible I missed or misunderstood something...

 

Thanks and good luck, H.

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duarte
· bearbeitet von duarte

Hello and welcome, duarte

 

Sorry but would you like to explain again what exactly the point of this thread is, or is going to be? What is the fundamental question you would like to discuss with the forum? Or in other words, might it be a better idea to describe your portfolio and trading strategy under "Technische Analyse, Fundamentalanalyse, Handelsstrategien" or as a "Musterdepot"? Only a friendly suggestion; it is entirely possible I missed or misunderstood something...

 

Thanks and good luck, H.

 

Hello Hasenhirn

 

I explained in the first post. In short, I use more technical analysis, also use fundamental analysis and sentiment readings. I'll have some portfolios in the forum and when I buy the assets, I'll post a short comment to say and explain why I will buy.

 

Right now, I have more doubts about the market direction and so I wait. The months of September and October are statistically the two worst months of the year for the market but there are no signs that the overall market will decline, but I also have doubts that it will continue to rise.

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duarte

August 31, 2012

Hedgers in Dow Jones Industrial Average futures have moved closer to a record net short position, establishing a $5.5 billion hedge against that index.

 

hedgers.png

 

August 30, 2012

Active investment managers have upped their exposure to the stock market to the highest level in over a year. There is a lot of group-think among the managers as well, with most of them skewed clearly to the long side.

 

managersu.png

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duarte

What is your football club? smile.gifThe club FC Bayern Munich? The club VfB Stuttgart scored first a beautiful goal but then the bayern razed the other club. In European competitions FC Bayern Munich has been weaker than in the championship. In the past get better results in european competitions.

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Hasenhirn
· bearbeitet von Hasenhirn

Hello again, duarte

 

Hmmm, football...? Even though I am still not sure what the topic of this thread is, I fear you are already getting off-topic yourself.

 

Have you browsed the other sections of this forum? Usually people tend to open threads if they have a specific question, want to have feedback or advice on their existing or future portfolios, or have some other topic they find interesting and want to share with others. The underlying motivation in most cases is to stimulate a discussion of general interest and (hopefully) mutual benefit. The underlying principle is to focus on a specific topic that has not been covered in other threads before.

 

As a consequence, many people here do not actually open their own threads unless they feel they have something really novel, important, or otherwise special to report or discuss. It is also often more convenient and effective to contribute smaller items of information or opinion to one of the many existing threads in the forum. In my view, this might also apply to the majority of your own posts in this thread.

 

For example, your uncommented sentimentrader.com charts might find a better home as individual posts in one of the other threads like "Marktausblick" or "Nachrichten, Kommentare, Prognosen", perhaps with some additional comment from yourself about why you decided to post them in the first place.

 

Your individual investment decisions, which you promised to share with us in the future, might become an interesting addition to some other part of the forum, possibly to "Technische Analyse, Fundamentalanalyse, Handelsstrategien". Perhaps opening a thread there would be a good idea; others have done that, sometimes even with an almost solipsist attitude.

 

And I am sure there is a suitable place for discussing football somewhere in the forum...

 

If on the other hand, you would like to have an "all-about-my-investments-and-other-things-I-happen-to-find-interesting" kind of thread, that is fine as well; those are sometimes found in the "Musterdepots" section of the forum. I am not sure what the criteria are for opening a Musterdepot; perhaps one of the mods could clarify this for you.

 

In any case, these are only my personal sentiments and suggestions; others will disagree. I only wanted to give you some friendly guidance, and I honestly do not think your thread is very well placed in this sub-forum, at least not in its current form.

 

Kind regards and good wishes, H.

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duarte
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Hello Hasenhirn,

 

The theme of football was a joke and I was curious to know if almost everyone in Germany like the FC Bayern Munich..

The topic is investment portfolio, I'll have several portfolios in excel. But you're right, maybe I should have started the topic at Technische Analyse, Fundamentalanalyse, Handelsstrategien. I didn´t know it was a subforum. I can ask someone to move the topic to this place? --I'll ask.

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Hasenhirn

Whoops, I feel like we have just been teleported. New sub-forum, new opportunities... Thanks to the unknown mod who put us here. And no offense intended at all, duarte. I am sure we will hear a lot of interesting views and news from you, here and (hopefully) in other places... Looking forward to that, H.

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duarte

I also thank to the unknown moderator for having moved the topic for this part of the forum. Hasenhirn, I'm not offended, I appreciate the alert. Let's move on.

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