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Things did not go well this week.

I will adjust my strategy.

I try to choose a certain strategy or another depending on how market moves, and the result obtained.

 

The market is still too overbought.

At some point in the future the market will come down.

However, the question remains as to when.

At this moment, I have technical indicators to point in one direction, and others to point in another direction, which means I need to be cautious.

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duarte
3/27/2013

What is the most common investor mistake? Trading–getting in and getting out at all the wrong times, for all the wrong reasons. You’ve heard it before: Most investors are their own worst enemies. My dad taught me this investing axiom at an early age. In fact, Dalbar Inc. documented it recently in a report available online called “Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior, 2012.” Google it, and you’ll see evidence from a 20-year study.

 

Most mutual fund buyers, for example, badly lag the very funds they buy (and sell) because of bad timing. The average mutual fund holding period for equity or fixed income is only about three years. It’s too short. Moreover, in the last two decades, stupid switching into and out of funds has cost equity fund holders more than four percentage points in annualized returns and bondholders even more–nearly six percentage points.

 

The solution, of course, is to trade less.

VIEWPOINT of Ken Fisher

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duarte

Here is the current portfolio:

 

1aVA6mc.png

 

Frohe Ostern euch allen!

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duarte

I discovered that there was a rounding problem in EXCEL sheet.

 

To calculate the Return I used the following formula: (Quantity*Close Price)-(Money), but to avoid the rounding problem I'm going to use the following formula: (Quantity*Close Price)-(Quantity*Buy Price).

 

The rounding problem has very little effect on portfolio but I have also decided to fix the previous trades.

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duarte

Here is a current portfolio update:

 

yKiYCIP.png

 

 

 

 

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duarte
· bearbeitet von duarte

I realized that I get stopped out to many times.

The reason this happened it was because I traded a lot.

I will trade less, if I trade less, I get stopped out less, and my broker will get less commission from me.

At this moment, my technical indicators are mixed, so I'll not risk a lot.

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duarte

Listed below is one closed trade:

 

FXUXibU.png

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duarte

Here you can see the portfolio update:

 

lZv2HFE.png

 

I now wait for the next buy signal of my technical indicators.

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duarte

The U.S market remains very strong. Looking at the monthly chart of the S&P 500 Index we note that the S&P 500 is already above the key level of 1575. As I have written before, if it continues above of 1575 in the next two months, that would be very positive in the long term.

However, this period is still one and a half months away.

 

YUJpPGX.png

 

 

This week the CONSENSUS Bullish Sentiment Index * was displaying very bullish sentiment with 77% bulls. In rather stark contrast the AAII Investor Sentiment (American Association of Individual Investors) ** reflects very bearish sentiment, with 19,30% bulls and 54% bears, which is surprising since historically, when the market trend is up and new highs are being made, the number of bulls tends to increase rather than decrease.

 

 

These AAII Investor Sentiment numbers are typically seen at market bottoms, not during price advances. The traditional interpretation of sentiment readings is contrarian, meaning that AAII Investor Sentiment is giving a bullish signal, and also suggests that Investors are trying to guess a top. We can also consider that investor confidence is lower than it ought to be in the context of a rally, but this is not the traditional interpretation of sentiment readings.

 

In conclusion, the number of bears suggests that the market will rise but my technical indicators for U.S. market still show mixed signals, so I will not put much money in the stock market. I, however, will follow the market developments next week closely and maybe I will buy one or two shares or ETFs.

 

 

(* Sentiment data is provided courtesy of the Consensus Inc. (Consensus - National Futures and Financial Investment Newspaper). The CONSENSUS Bullish Sentiment of Market Opinion shows the positions and attitudes of professional brokers and advisors. Polling is conducted on Consensus web site with a Thursday cutoff and Friday release. The survey is available on Saturday for free on the Barrons web site at Barron's Market Lab Table - Barrons.com).

 

(** Sentiment data is provided courtesy of the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII: The American Association of Individual Investors). Polling is conducted on the AAII web site with a Wednesday cutoff and Thursday release).

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H.B.

Thanks for this interesting post.

 

, so I will not put much money in the stock market. I, however, will follow the market developments next week closely and maybe I will buy one or two shares or ETFs.

 

 

This is the only valid rational conclusion.

However – you are in line with the broad market. This does not protect from (even sharp) corrections. The absence of any euphoria this is definitively a long term bullish sign.

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duarte

Thanks for your interest.

 

That maybe, but the AAII sentiment numbers are very surprising, because this has never happened before.

 

At other times, when the number of bulls was lower than the 20%, the market fell before this happened.

 

PS: I still have a leveraged long position in S&P 500. I also have 3 long-term market timer portfolios in the forum, but in this portfolio I use the technical indicators in a different manner.

 

http://www.wertpapie...her-in-5-years/

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duarte

I have just been looking at the AAII chart. Contrary to what I said earlier, this has already happened several times to date, particularly at the end of the 1980s and the beginning of the 1990s.

 

See chart:

 

 

 

ThNDcYb.png

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duarte

I will buy shares of Kilroy Realty: (NYSE: KRC).

 

 

izD9CsE.png

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duarte

See annotated chart:

 

VQ8AEW9.png

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duarte

The following is the current portfolio:

 

gMkybsF.png

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duarte

The following is the market timer portfolio.

 

w0U076M.png

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duarte

Below are the charts along with brief commentary.

 

The following two monthly charts give a long-term perspective for the S&P 500.

 

I am going to look again closely for the period between 1967 and 1984, as well as, for the period between 2000 and 2013.

In December 1980, the S&P 500 closed above to its resistance line and then fell for 20 months. For that reason, even if the index closes above to its resistance line, the fall will remain possible. On the other hand, if the index rises above 1625 (above 3,17% of its resistance line), it is more likely to go up rather than down.

At this time, the two paths remain open but the very bearish sentiment supports the continuation of the rise.

Let's see what happens. This month and next month will be very important to trace the path for long term.

 

T4ZOzz5.png

 

eYzINOX.png

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duarte

The following daily chart gives a short-term perspective for the S&P 500.

 

 

The rally that began off the November low has been persistent.

In the context of a Bull Market, the 50 day moving average often serves as a support and that is what happened last Friday.

If the index falls below the 50 day moving average, this will be interpreted as a negative signal.

U7Kr5io.png

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duarte

The following daily chart gives a short-term perspective for the DAX.

 

The DAX is in a short term bear trend with a series of lower lows and lower highs.

Last Friday closed the trading session at 7459,96 near its 200 day exponential moving average set at 7425,55.

In the context of a Bull Market, the 200 day moving average often serves as a support. If that happens, the market rises.

Let's see what happens.

 

4SWadGm.png

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duarte

4 New Buys

 

s5miJuW.png

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duarte

Annotated charts:

 

FA3Tnm9.png

 

sPCa3TK.png

 

9Bo99h7.png

 

cBIKK7S.png

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duarte

The following is the portfolio:

 

zPVWGDl.png

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duarte
· bearbeitet von duarte

Today, I was unable to write it on time. sad.gif

 

 

4 New Buys and 1 New stop loss order

 

4fHkCUS.png

jjffKx5.png

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duarte

Annotated charts:

 

1WF3nyh.png

 

SH4Ur76.png

 

Yw4lbvj.png

 

jdIpphD.png

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duarte

Listed below is one closed trade:

 

CUwQusC.png

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