800,- Euro/Monat zu Investieren in ETFs

[d_g]

Hi, sorry für mein Deutsch. Es ist meine Erste Post, aber ich lese der Forum zeit mehrere Wochen schon.

 

1. Erfahrungen mit Geldanlagen: Keine richtige Erfahrung mit Investment.

 

2. Darstellung von bereits vorhandenen Fondspositionen (ISIN angeben)

 

Ich habe momentan angefangen mit zwei ETFs:

• 50% iShares STOXX Europe 600 UCITS ETF (DE) - ISIN DE0002635307
• 50% Deka MSCI USA UCITS ETF - ISIN DE000A0Z3P14

Will in der Zukunft mehr Diversification, etwa wie:

• 35% iShares STOXX Europe 600 UCITS ETF (DE) - ISIN DE0002635307
• 35% Deka MSCI USA UCITS ETF - ISIN DE000A0Z3P14
• 10% iShares Nikkei 225® UCITS ETF (DE) - ISIN DE000A0H08D2
• 20% Deka MSCI China UCITS ETF - ISIN DE000ETFL326

Ich weiß, was ich plane ist nicht der Standard Empfehlung im Forum, aber mehr als 20% in Emerging Markets finde ich zu Viel. Also, China Entwicklung is für mich irgendwie einfache zu vorstellen als diese von ganz MSCI EM.

 

Für den Teil "Pazifik" würde der Nikkei 225 Index nutzen, weil iShares ein ETF mit Deutschen Domizil (steuereinfach) hat.

 

3. Zeitliche Aufwandsbereitschaft für eure Fondsanlage: 5 Stunden / Woche.

 

4. Risikotyp/Risikobereitschaft/Umgang mit Verlusten: Lange Horizont, Value Average wenn möglich, so (ich hoffe) kein Problem mit un-realisierte Verluste.

 

Optionale Angaben:

 

1. Alter: 34

2. Berufliche Situation: Unbefristet Angestellter (8+ Jahren bis Jetzt)

3. Sparer-Pauschbetrag ausgeschöpft? Nein

 

 

Über meine Fondsanlage:

 

1. Anlagehorizont: 15+

2. Zweck der Anlage: Vermögensaufbau

3. Einmalanlage und/oder Sparplan? Kein Sparplan, aber regelmäßig anlage (1 mal in Monat +/-)

4. Anlagekapital: Etwa 800,- Euro in Monat

 

Ich spare auch mit einer betriebliche Altersvorsorge (seit mehrere Jahren, +200 Euro/Monat, 4% Renditen pro Jahr).

 

 

Meine Fragen wären:

• Wäre noch Sinnvoll, der oben-genannte Verteilung der Depot (35-35-20-10)? Ist es Akzeptabel?
• Wie gut/schlecht is, auf eure Sicht, der TD von Deka ETFs für DE000A0Z3P14 und DE000ETFL326?

Kurz auf Englisch:

 

Sorry for my german, I can speak/read it quite well, but at the moment I really need to practice the writing. The main questions that I have are the planned diversification that I have for the portfolio. I do not feel comfortable investing too much in EM, I know it has potential to grow, but the risk profile for some of the countries involved is also high in the sense of political direction / (in)stability, which is not the case for China (so far). I give a paramount importance for the “Steuereinfach” long term status of the Fonds, that is why only plan to get german ETFs. But I am concern with the Tracking Difference of the Deka ETFs, and I would like to read your opinions.

 

Vielen Dank,

 

Daniel

[xfklu]

Wäre noch Sinnvoll, der oben-genannte Verteilung der Depot (35-35-20-10)? Ist es Akzeptabel?

Ich finde die Aufteilung okay. Aber es fehlen dann wichtige Länder wie Brasilien, Russland, Indien, Canada, Australien, ...etc.

[d_g]

Wäre noch Sinnvoll, der oben-genannte Verteilung der Depot (35-35-20-10)? Ist es Akzeptabel?

Ich finde die Aufteilung okay. Aber es fehlen dann wichtige Länder wie Brasilien, Russland, Indien, Canada, Australien, ...etc.

 

Vielen Dank für deine Antwort!

 

Ich glaube Brasil, Russia, India, etc sind zu vermissen, aber ich kann damit leben. Was ich gerne haben wollte, und in dieser Verteilung nicht dabei ist, wäre Singapur und Hong Kong. Ich kann später "exposure" zu diese Marks haben, wenn ein bisschen "iShares STOXX Global Select Dividend 100 UCITS ETF (DE)" - ISIN DE000A0F5UH1 (Singapur 10,37%; Hong Kong 10,25%) kaufe, aber nicht in der monatliche Einkauf, sonder mit ein teil von Weihnachtsgeld (etwa 1500 Euro/Jahr für diese Wert). Da gibt es auch Australia und Canada (9,16% und 8,31%).

[Hellerhof]

Hey Daniel,

 

I'll respond in English, I am sure that you feel more comfortable with it. Nevertheless, If you want to practice your German even in the case of financial planning, just give me a shout!

 

Your choice of stock ETF is pretty acceptable, especially taking into account your condition of a German domicile. But, and as you may have noticed yet, there is always a but

Your choice for Japan/Pacific is good, but maybe you can improve your diversification by choosing the DEKA MSCI Japan. You would get 89 additional stocks at almost the same cost (the TER is similar but I lack information concerning the tracking difference for both funds.) However that shouldn’t be your main priority. Diversification of funds issuers is a point a lot of people that seriously too.

 

The next issue is the fund for China instead of all of EM. What you are doing is to bet on mainland China. You've noticed the importance of diversification already so you should revisit your choice. Predicting the future of an economy is a task countless economists miss to fulfil every year for dozens of years in a row - so there is no point that you can imagine the development of China in a way that gives you any hint for a proper choice. Just one example: did you know about the so called credit and debt bubble of Chinas regional governments? This is just one tiny example to show you that diversification shouldn´t end at the frontier between developed and emerging markets. Even if Brazil is in some trouble right now it is worth diversifying your investment.

 

You may have read that it is not only about stocks. So are you sure that you have got enough liquidity to provide a nest egg in the case of falling stock prices in a moment of personal need?

Please don't feel your attempt to write in German being rejected, I really appreciated that! I am always impressed of other people learning German grammar as I tend to struggle with it myself from time to time. So be sure it is not because of your German, which is pretty good!

[d_g]

Dear Hellerhof,

 

Many thanks for your answer. As you mentioned, diversification of issuers is the reason for which I am planing to buy iShares instead of Deka for Japan; otherwise I would put 65% of my money with Deka ETFs, instead of 55%. The volume of the iShares ETF looks also better. I am also aware of the burbles in China, but even if the economy there fails in the next decade, since the amount invested would be relatively small, I could carry out a value average there, simply changing the proportion from 20% to 30% over the years, which would not affect greatly the portfolio (I would still have 30/30/10 for USA, Europe and Japan). What do you think about it?

 

I also mentioned that I am planing to get iShares STOXX Global Select Dividend 100 UCITS ETF - ISIN DE000A0F5UH1, but only once a year. It has exposure to markets which I really like, like Singapur and Hong Kong. It is not a wide enough index, I could get too much of GB, CH and USA (which I already have with the MSCI USA and Stoxx Europe 600), but I will not invest much anyway.

 

Regarding having cash, well.. I am a bad example of UAW (Under Accumulator of Wealth, as per definition given in "The Millionaire next Door"); I really cannot keep cash. For an emergency I have a small amount of physical metal, which I increase from time to time. I know the price of gold can decline suddenly at any moment, but if it were cash, it would not be there at all.

 

I am really looking forward to read your opinion,

 

Best Regards,

 

Daniel

[Hellerhof]

Hello again,

 

just two short remarks. You sould consider a Tagesgeldkonto to get some cash out of your sight. Moments of personal need, as I called it, are not necccesarily connected with a stock market crash. Just think of a broken washing machine, your car needing some maintenance or a expensive repair. Or, God forbid, your dentist will have to charge you a small fortune. There are several reasons. My suggested solution for your inability to keep you cash is a Tagesgeldkonto at another bank than your actual banking account. Maybe this will help you to forget about you financial reserve and make it sustainable.

 

My second point. All your arguments in favour of a China-only-solution go for the broader MSCI EM as well. But the diversification is much higher. You may are aware of the 'second condition condition' besides diversification: it is rebalancing. If you stick to those two principles there will be no big difference in your long term return. Which leads me to another point you mentioned. Hong Kong, Australia, Canada and Singapore all seem very interesting for investing but they are all relatively small both in term of market capitalisation and gross domestic product. So there will be no big difference in return if you miss those tiny places in your allocation. Missing Latin America, Eastern Europe, Korea, South Africa, Indonesia... is another, different case which I've already explained.

To get a better feeling of how important an exact depiction of the world in your allocation is, just go to Chemstudent's graphs. You find them here and here.

 

Funds for a dividend strategy go with some trouble based on the construction of their indices. Put the small share you are planning in relation to the finding of Chemstudent and I guess you will come to the conclusion that those funds do not add an extra value to your portfolio. They are at least just increasing your transaction costs if not reducing the performance of your portfolio.

[d_g]

Dear Hellerhof,

 

 

Many thanks again for your answer. Your really gave me something to think about, specially in relation to the size of the Singapore, Hong Kong, Australia and Canada markets, and the "dividend" index strategy. I will take into consideration your argument.

 

Regarding the "tagesgeld" account, it is a good idea, I could deviate a small amount of money every month. But it is cash, I would know it is cash, my wife would know it is cash, and the definition of an emergency for my wife is a very relaxed one .

 

I would appreciate if you could help me evaluating the Deka MSCI Emerging Markets UCITS ETF - ISIN DE000ETFL342. According to a tool available in the Deka's website the TD, since creation to date (01.07.2010, accumulated, not annualized), is -5.84%, for the period 02.01.2014 to 02.01.2015 TD was -1.59%, with a TR of 0.09%. The given TER is 0.65%, and a volume of 18.166.789 USD. It is based on Swap. Would you use this ETF? Does this values (TD/TR/TER) are acceptable for such a wide market ETF? I do not ask about the market volume since I appreciate it is very small, and I understand it is not possible to have everything at the same time, given the importance I give to a long term simple taxation ETF.

 

Again, many thanks for your answer,

 

Kindest Regards,

 

Daniel

[Hellerhof]

Daniel,

 

maybe to secure some cash another ETF on short term government bonds of highest quality might be an alternative in your case. Of course it is not appropriate for building up a fortune due to the low yield to maturity and transaction costs but the market risk is pretty low and it would appear as a part of your investment and therefore not as cash your wife would grab in her emergencies. As the reserve should be used for moments of need there is not real desire for a high return. Take it as an insurance which always comes with a premium.

 

The Deka ETF we have to discuss based on the alternatives available for you. As you want the long term status "steuereinfach" there is no alternative. Every other ETF for this region is not based in Germany and that's why the tax status can change from one year to another. The comstage MSCI Emerging Markets (LU0635178014) is cheaper, based on swap as well, accumulating its dividends but domiciled in Luxembourg. At the moment the funds is steuereinfach, due to face that the management is using the swap to clear the fund of the cash flow which causes some trouble in the German tax law (so called ausschüttungsgleiche Erträge). But there is no guarantee that this mechanism won't change over time.

There is an ETF of UBS which is not using swap but direct replication, distributing its dividends and is steuereinfach as well but the case is similar. This status can change easily due to its domicile.

So my answer to your question is: Yes, I would use the fund if I would need one with its domicile in Germany. Its costs are not prohibitive.

 

The volume shouldn't bother you as the only thing that can happen is that if the fund is going to be liquidated you have to ask you the same question again. The tracking difference is not top-notch, in fact it makes the fund expensive, but there is no real alternative (taking your condition into account) for you.

[Rohlöff]

Hallo,

ich schalte mich mal auf deutsch dazwischen.

Auch wenn es wirtschaftlich keinen Sinn macht: Ich bevorzuge auch ausschließlich ETFs mit Domizil in Deutschland.

Ich habe einfach keine Lust auf den Papierkram mit meiner Steuererklärung. (Punkt)

Selbst wenn der Aufwand überschaubar ist.

 

Mir ist es zu unsicher aktuell "steuereinfache" Fonds zu wählen, bei denen die Einfachheit zukünftig wegfallen kann.

Natürlich macht auf lange Sicht ein Unterschied bei der TER von wenigen 0,1% eine Menge aus - aber den Luxus gönne ich mir dann mal.

Ein steuereinfaches ETF-Portfolio macht mit Sicherheit mehr SInn, als mein "Vermögen" ausschließlich auf dem Tagesgeldkonto versauern zu lassen bzw. in aktiv gemanagte Fonds zu investieren.

(Ich mache jetzt an dieser Stelle mal keinen großen Unterschied zwischen "sicherer Anlage" und dem "spekulativem Teil")

Wenn ich es richtig sehe, hat der comstage MSCI Emerging Markets (LU0635178014) eine TER von 0,5% und der Deka 0,65% (zusätzlich die wohl schlechtere Trackingdifferenz)

Ein deutlicher Unterschied - aber ich bin einfach zu faul für den Bundesanzeiger etc.

(Vielleicht ändert sich diese Meinung mal bei höherem Depotvolumen)

[d_g]

Dear Hellerhof, Dear Klaus-Behmer,

 

Many thanks for your answer. Then I will follow your advice, and structure the portfolio accordingly, investing in cycles like this:

 

Month 1: 800,- Eur MSCI USA;

Month 2: 800,- Eur Stoxx Europe 600;

Month 3: 480,- Eur MSCI EM / 320,- Eur Nikkei 225;

Total: 2400,- Eur

 

- MSCI USA: 33,33%

- Stoxx Europe 600: 33,33%

- MSCI EM: 20%

- Nikkei 225: 13,33%

 

Since I already have some small amount in MSCI USA and Stoxx Europe 600, I will have to buy the next month in another proportion, but later on keeping the aforementioned cycle, until rebalancing. I know I could optimize the transaction cost a little more for the third month, buying the Nikkei 225 not at the third month but saving the cash for the sixth month, but as mentioned, we are very efficient spending here at home, and the less cash the better.

 

Rebalancing could take place at the end of the fourth cycle, depending of the appreciation or depreciation of the indexes.

 

I would appreciate any comment.

 

Have a nice evening,

 

Kindest Regards,

 

Daniel

[Hellerhof]

Dear Daniel,

 

again you are aware of the points that are somehow problematic. The transaction costs are damn high, should be around 3% depending on your broker. But as you are aware of that I don't see any other obstacle than those mentioned.

 

Nobody here in the forum would give you the advice to start your investment without the equivalent of three to six monthly incomes as a cash reserve. Me neither! In fact your whole fortune is bound in stocks and physical metal which is not very clever.

 

Kind regards and good luck!

[d_g]

Dear Daniel,

 

again you are aware of the points that are somehow problematic. The transaction costs are damn high, should be around 3% depending on your broker. But as you are aware of that I don't see any other obstacle than those mentioned.

 

Nobody here in the forum would give you the advice to start your investment without the equivalent of three to six monthly incomes as a cash reserve. Me neither! In fact your whole fortune is bound in stocks and physical metal which is not very clever.

 

Kind regards and good luck!

 

Dear Hellerhof,

 

Your arguments are sound, so I will listen to them. I do not have 3 monthly salaries in gold, but I will sell what I have and start a "spar-plan" with the money, saving and additional small amount every month, apart of what is going to the indexes.

 

What do you think of this ETF:

 

Shares eb.rexx® Government Germany 2.5-5.5yr UCITS ETF (DE) - DE0006289481

 

Would it be cash equivalent enough?

 

Again many thanks for your answers, your help and your time.

 

Have a nice day,

 

Best Regards,

 

Daniel

[Hellerhof]

Hey Daniel,

 

it does not happen regularly that guys who are new to this topic are as well prepared and open minded as you are. So this is why our discussion is fun.

 

I did a quick and dirty search and from my point of view there are five options, of which four are an alternative to the Tagesgeldkonto. But just two are really funds for Government bonds. The tax issue is crossing out other government bonds funds.

 

The first ist the Deka Deutsche Boerse EUROGOV® Germany Money Market UCITS ETF (DE000ETFL227). Its domicile is Germany and therefore its steuereinfach, no government bonds but money market. Due the low interest which is paid on the money market at the moment the fee is higher than the interest and in fact you are losing a little bit every day. But the market risk is really low.

 

The second one is the Deka iBoxx EUR Liquid Germany Covered Diversified UCITS ETF (DE000ETFL359). Again the domicile is Germany but no government bonds. This fund is based on German covered bonds which are not that risky. The market risk is higher compared to the money market, but still not that high. From my point of view it seems to be the best compromise.

 

The third is Deka iBoxx EUR Liquid Sovereign Diversified 1-3 UCITS ETF (DE000ETFL128) short term bonds issued by governments in the euro zone. The market risk is not that high due to the short duration of the bonds. The longer the duration is the riskier the funds is. The mechanism behind is pretty simple. In the market interest rate is rising the market price of the bonds is falling until an investor who is buying a bond gets the same yield on every bond on the market. If the market interest rate is falling the price of the bonds will rise until the point that its yield is equal to the market interest rate. Of course this holds only when we control for the specific counterparty risk.

 

The forth one is the iShares Euro Government Bond 0-1yr UCITS ETF (DE000A0RM462) its domicile is in Ireland, but I checked the tax law status and there shouldn't be any trouble for you, Again there is no guarantee that this won't change. The duration is really short so the market risk is fairly low.

 

The fund you've suggested doesn't fit that well because of its relatively long duration, this implies I higher market risk in the case of changing interest rates.

 

I propose that you will check the issuers homepages for more information. If there are some questions feel free to ask, I will be happy to help. My recommendation is a Tagesgeldkonto, because it´s risk free, cheap and provides a yield that is very competitive at the moment. If you want to choose a fund instead think about the German covered bonds. Just to make sure that you are aware of evey risk: there is always a counterparty risk but taking German government bonds as an example it is supposed to be low for every alternative I've listed above. The ishares euro goverment bonds fund is composed of bonds with an investment grade rating, so there are no Greek bonds in case you are afraid of that.

 

Best Regards!

[d_g]

Dear Hellerhof,

 

Many thanks for your answer. I would check in detail the possibilities.

Have a nice day,

Kindest Regards,

Daniel