Anlegen nach der "Finanzkrise"

[XYZ99]

Ein ganz wichtiger Grundsatz für das Anlegen --- insbesondere jetzt: das Vertrauen

 

Vertrauen ist das Fundament jeder Ökonomie. Wahrscheinlich weil es das Fundament jedes sozialen Austauschs ist.

 

The Economy Will Not Recover Until Trust is Restored

 

By George Washington of Washingtons Blog. via nakedcapitalism

 

A 2005 letter in premier scientific journal Nature reviews the research on trust and economics:

 

Trust plays a key role in economic exchange and politics. In the absence of trust among trading partners, market transactions break down. In the absence of trust in a countrys institutions and leaders, political legitimacy breaks down. Much recent evidence indicates that trust contributes to economic, political and social success.

 

....

 

Wunderbar argumentiert, überzeugend und einnehmend. Zeigt als "Nebenaspekt" klar auf, dass die Krise nicht vorbei sein kann und die derzeitige angebliche "Verbesserung" nur trügerisch sein kann.

 

edit: ganz anders ist das hier besprochene "Vertrauen": NZZ - Aufgeblähte Blasen und vertrauenserweckende Geschichten

Nobelpreisträger George Akerlof über fehlendes Misstrauen

[XYZ99]

Zum Thema "overfidence", bzw. Mut und Übermut beim Investieren dieses Fundstück aus unserem Forum:

 

...

Unser Wirtschaftssystem basiert auf Egoismus und Gier. Entweder das System geht unter oder wir werden in wenigen Monaten wieder die alten Verhältnisse haben... Ich gehe nicht davon aus, dass das System untergeht. Also, rein in die Vollen oder ihr werdet euch in 12 Monaten in den Allerwertesten beißen.

[XYZ99]

Rather than nervously waiting on the formerly prosperous yet fragile financial market coastlands for the inflation tsunami to hit, prudent investors worldwide are climbing to the rocky and safe highlands to ride out the coming inflation tsunami in their golden fortresses high above the lethal inflationary waves.

Adam Hamilton, 5.10.2001: The Inflation Tsunami

 

 

Woran erkennt man einen bevorstehenden Tsunami, wenn man das Beben nicht erkennt (dürfte meistens der Fall sein)?

 

Das Wasser geht zurück, Deflation.

[XYZ99]

Nassim Talebs Rat, via Infectious Greed

My advice is that instead of investing in medium-risk securities, you should put most of your money in very low-risk securities, and a little bit in high-risk securities. Then you might get a good black swan. Also, it's good to have more than one profession, in case your own profession goes out of style. A Wall Street trader who's also a belly dancer will do a lot better than a trader who winds up driving a taxi.

[XYZ99]

Das ist wohl die Antwort auf die Frage wer und was diese Aktienrally antreibt... es ist das Eigengeschäft der Banken.

 

Für den China-Markt ist es schon gesagt worden (Andie Xie), dass das bailout-Geld und das frisch gedruckte bzw. gegen 0 % geliehene Geld die Rally treibt. Allgemein sagt dies klar und deutlich Moonraker Fund Management, mit dem ebenso klaren und deutlichen Kommentaren von pragcap dazu:

 

Moonrakers analysis raises a more nefarious possibility the banks are effectively creating a ponzi run stock market in which they use the bailout money to drive various market prices higher and thereby juice their own earnings. Its quite brilliant when you think about it until the music stops. All of this of course, has created an environment of false positive psychology. Investors truly believe the crisis is over and that all of our long-term structural problems have been solved by the government. Unfortunately, should this nefarious action be even remotely true, its only a matter of time before the banks stop buying for their own accounts and begin to take profits. If the economy continues to flounder and consumers remain wary of the recovery its unlikely that the rally will find legs to continue on. The banks will have once again taken advantage of the U.S. taxpayer who so kindly lent the hand that allowed them to survive. But alas, such is the way of the boom, bust manipulated capitalist system that the Federal Reserve has been running for the last 25 years.

 

Kann also noch eine Weile weitergehen, die Rally. Sogar das alte Hoch ist drin! Allerdings dürften die Kursgewinne sehr trügerisch sein und rasch einbrechen können, etwa durch Leitzinserhöhungen, Enttüddeln der Dollar-carry-trades, Shocks durch CRE oder Zombie-Kredite, Marsmännchen, etc. Fast beliebig viele Möglichkeiten. Wenn etwas in diesem Umfeld nicht nicht nicht zu empfehlen ist, dann ist es Aktien zu kaufen um sie langfristig zu halten.

[Prospektständer]

Könntes du (im letzten Satz) deine dreifach Verneinung noch in eine doppel Verneinung oder auch einfache Verneinung editieren?...

 

Danke, jschoeck

[XYZ99]

Dreifach genäht hält einfach besser!

[XYZ99]

Interessanter (und kontroverser) Vergleich:

Allow Me to Introduce: The Biggest Sucker Rally Since The Great Depression, Simon Maierhofer

 

...The parallels between today and the Great Depression are numerous and strikingly similar. ...

 

The Great Depression's Warren Buffett

 

Yes, the Great Depression had its own Warren Buffett - John D. Rockefeller. In his first public statement in decades, Mr. Rockefeller expressed his conviction 'that fundamental conditions of the country are sound, my son and I have for some days been purchasing sound common stocks.' A few months later, on November 13, 1929, Mr. Rockefeller allegedly entered a million-share buying agreement to peg Standard Oil's stock price at $50.

 

Rockefeller's public appearance is strikingly similar to Warren Buffett's October 16, 2008 op-ed in the Wall Street Journal, 'Buy America. I am.' Buffett confirmed his view many more times since, most recently in a 7-24-2009 interview with CNBC's Squawk Box where he stated that Dow 9,000 is still a good time to buy stocks.

 

Initially, John D. Rockefeller looked like a genius because stocks started the mother of all sucker rallies the week he allegedly entered into the buying agreement. The 1930 green shoots, however, wilted quickly. A few years later, mighty Standard Oil - the parent company of Exxon and Mobil - traded at $20 share, more than 70% below its prior high. Few companies have been as influential as Standard Oil in the early 20th century and Berkshire Hathaway today. Even though they are decades apart, their paths might be similar.

Caveat Emptor!

[XYZ99]

Jetzt pfeifen es die Spatzen von den Dächern, was ich noch Kritik geerntet am Anfang des Jahres (als Frischling) als ich auf diese Zusammenhänge hinwies:

 

ftd: Die Politik des billigen Geldes treibt den Dax

 

Genau deshalb bin ich noch in Aktien. Ansonsten sollte man sowas nur mit einer langen Stange berühren.... :-

 

Was derzeit besonders gut oben aufschwimmt, sollte einem schon klar sein.... aufpassen, dass nicht sowas hier passiert!!

 

Frohes Investieren!

 

Nachtrag: Welcome to the liquidity surge

[XYZ99]

Paul Tudor Jones:

 

The forceful policy response to avert depression tail risks posed by the financial crisis has likely unleashed a wave of liquidity which is probably greater than that of 2001-2003. Our job is to identify the best performing assets of this Great Liquidity Race. At present, it appears those assets are gold, emerging market equities denominated in local currencies, and commodity related stocks.

hier zitiert

[XYZ99]

Handelsblatt.com:

Optimiertes Investment: Emotionslose Geldanlage mit dem Computer

 

Mit Computerprogrammen können Investoren Börsentrends aufspüren, ohne sich von kurzfristigen Kursschwankungen beeindrucken zu lassen. Die quantitative Anlagemodelle nach Vorschrift schneiden im Vergleich oft deutlich besser ab. Denn Computer kennen keine Angst.

 

Aber sie hinken den trends nach, die loser der letzten Jahre sind eben jene "Quants", die jetzt auch für den Hausgebrauch tauglich gemacht werden sollen....

 

Köstlich amüsiert habe ich mich über den Kommentar von zerohedge zu dieser neuen Art von Software, das ist was fürs Forum!

For The Low, Low Price Of $29.95, You Too Can Run Your Very Own Plunge Protection Team

 

Tylers Kommentar:

1,000 copies were shipped to all the recently hired traders at the New York Federal Reserve.

 

und aus der Werbung für das Produkt....

Did you ever wish for a crystal ball that can tell you when the market is going up or down? How about a personal trading advisor that can recommend when to enter a trade? If you said yes to either one of these, you are not alone. Imagine if you had a trading platform that did both and was easy to use. A trading platform with no complex portfolios, no difficult software and no expensive data feeds. After a few brainstorm sessions and lots of coffee, we built Quant Trader EOD (End of Day). We also added simple portfolio building, easy to use software and a free data feed. In fact, Quant Trader is so effective and easy to use that a trader with literally no experience can be up and running in one day...

[XYZ99]

James Montier Is Back, Discussing Ten Lessons Not Learned From The Bad Dream

 

James Montier is back ... His 10 lessons not learned from the greatest market crash is a must read for everyone who refuses to drink the Kool-Aid.

 

Viele zeitlose Ratschläge, witzig geschrieben, klug.

 

Wer hatte nochmal gesagt, dass man aus der Geschichte lediglich lernen könne, dass der Mensch aus der Geschichte nicht lernt?

[XYZ99]

Wer eine Prognose für das nächste Jahrzehnt, das der "dead duck", haben möchte, sollte sich genau anhören, was David Roche hier im Interview zu sagen hat. Ich denke, der weiss auch genau was er da sagt mit "leverage" usw.

[XYZ99]

Ein hervorragender kleiner Aufsatz:

Does the Govt manipulate stock prices?

 

The question we should be asking ourselves is whether we would miss any of these banks were they to disappear into the abyss of Chapter 11. Lets be realistic though. In this bailout nation and false capitalist market we all know that wont happen. The losers dont lose in this market. At least not until the next big bust. Until then, perhaps the mantra of dont fight the Fed is more relevant now than ever. Just make sure youre not the guy holding the bag when it all comes crashing down.

[XYZ99]

David Rosenberg:

It is very important not to get caught up in the euphoria in the business media and the mania in the financial markets. The most dangerous thing anyone can do right now is extrapolate the stimulus-led bounce of the past year into the future.

Are Pig Farmers Doing All The Trading? "The Top Five Prop Desks Are Buying And Selling Securities With Leverage ... To Each Other!"

[XYZ99]

Für ein besinnliches Osterfest:

 

Deep Thoughts From FX Concepts' John Taylor: "They Still Think The Government Will Save Them"

 

The feeling that the government will ride in on a white horse to rescue the world is widely held. The vast majority believe that the government can control the economy, and the reason that they are so vociferous or should I say violent is that they really believe that if their party or concept were in total control then everything would be fixed up and we all would be paying our bills and living the good life. In the Eurozone, the battle to control the economic levers is primarily fought between countries and secondarily between political classes within the countries, but in the United States, it is a battle between political philosophies. The combatants think the prize political power and the decisions it allows is very valuable. The winners actually believe that control of the government will allow them to arrange things in their perfected image. Not only do the voters and political activists think that the government has all the power, but those who are in control of the government believe they have this power too.

 

This conception of the world and how it works is just plain wrong or, maybe I should say, at least 80% wrong. Not only does the government not have the kind of control that the public perceives, but no one, not even among the most renowned professors or hedge fund managers, has the analytical powers or knowledge to accurately describe the future, much less how to alter the course of events in this way or that. History is littered with unintended consequences of actions that were meant to achieve some desired goal, but resulted in something entirely different not necessarily worse, but different. Everyone with any skill in the money management or the economic forecasting arena is aware of how little he or she knows. The random nature of the variables is important, but the psychologically hardwired misconceptions that the behavioral economists have recently pinpointed make the problem much worse. None of the blue ribbon economists ever forecast a recession, but they do occur. More importantly we all see order when there is none and we all believe that we know more than we do. This applies to Geithner, Sarkozy, Merkel, Gordon Brown, and even Paul Volcker, as well as to you and me.

 

The Europeans and the Americans will eventually realize that their leaders, both in power and out of power, do not have the answers and will not be able to rescue them. The course is set by what has gone before. In fact, the major actors in the current drama will not be todays policymakers but the unintended consequences of hundreds of previous policies and actions, among them: the structure of the Maastricht Treaty, Greenspans acting only after the bubbles had popped, the invasion of Iraq, paying off AIGs debts at 100%, and the explosion of government debt in 2008 and 2009. Even if todays policymakers had better foresight than any of their predecessors, they are bound so tightly by the previous structures, much like Gulliver in Lilliput, that they cannot move. Todays stock market rallies, climbing house prices in Australia, Canada and the UK, plus the high levels of consumer spending and low levels of saving are all signs that we still believe that the government is going to protect us from any injury. History tells those who read it that this has never been the case before, and will not be the case this time. Although the twists and turns are unpredictable, todays imbalances will be rectified somehow. When it finally dawns on us that the governments are not capable of protecting us, we will be very angry and propose many dramatic, often irrational and dramatically sub-optimal strategies, making the world far less safe and very unstable. The students of history and the cynics will

be the most successful at managing and surviving in the next decade or so, but only if they remain humble, aware that they really dont know how it will come out either.

[XYZ99]

Albert Edwards: Europe Is On The Edge Of A Deflationary Precipice That Will, Paradoxically, Usher In 20-30% Inflation

 

 

1) deflationärer Einbruch/Kollaps

2) starke Inflation

 

2) (- der Inflations-Tsunami) kommt, wenn 1) nicht völlig vernichtend ausfällt.

[Roter Franz]

Albert Edwards: Europe Is On The Edge Of A Deflationary Precipice That Will, Paradoxically, Usher In 20-30% Inflation

 

 

1) deflationärer Einbruch/Kollaps

2) starke Inflation

 

2) (- der Inflations-Tsunami) kommt, wenn 1) nicht völlig vernichtend ausfällt.

 

Ich halte von all diesen "Experten" mittlerweile nichts mehr.

Augenscheinlicher Beschiss, wie im Falle Griechenland, wird nicht erkannt, aber Deflations- Stagflations und Inflationszenarien werden fast auf´s Monat genau vorhergesagt.

[XYZ99]

Die Sichtweise von Felix Zulauf ist sehr lehrreich und gut vorgetragen (im Interview, englisch, aber sehr deutlich und gut verständlich).

 

Hier noch eines von handelsblatt.com....

 

Felix Zulauf sieht (ebenso wie Albert Edwards und andere) die Gefahr eines deflationären Kollaps, der unmittelbar danach von starker Inflation ("Hyperinflation") gefolgt wird. Besonders das Erläutern dieses Szenarios ist ihm im Interview besonders gut gelungen. Ich bleibe bei dem bildlichen Vergleich mit einem Tsunami....

[BondWurzel]

Ich bleibe bei dem bildlichen Vergleich mit einem Tsunami

 

Das geht ja und trifft nur die unmittelbar an der Küste...

 

Ich halte von all diesen "Experten" mittlerweile nichts mehr.

 

 

Albert Edwards

 

Wer ist das?

[XYZ99]

Zum möglichen Inflations-Tsunami und seiner Entwicklung:

 

As they prepare for holiday reading in Tuscany, City bankers are buying up rare copies of an obscure book on the mechanics of Weimar inflation published in 1974.

 

....

 

The crucial passage comes in Chapter 17 entitled "Velocity". Each big inflation -- whether the early 1920s in Germany, or the Korean and Vietnam wars in the US -- starts with a passive expansion of the quantity money. This sits inert for a surprisingly long time. Asset prices may go up, but latent price inflation is disguised. The effect is much like lighter fuel on a camp fire before the match is struck.

 

People’s willingness to hold money can change suddenly for a "psychological and spontaneous reason" , causing a spike in the velocity of money. It can occur at lightning speed, over a few weeks. The shift invariably catches economists by surprise. They wait too long to drain the excess money.

 

"Velocity took an almost right-angle turn upward in the summer of 1922," said Mr O Parsson. Reichsbank officials were baffled. They could not fathom why the German people had started to behave differently almost two years after the bank had already boosted the money supply. He contends that public patience snapped abruptly once people lost trust and began to "smell a government rat". ....

The Death of Paper Money

 

********

 

Erg: besagtes Buch gibt es hier