Anibaldo Dezember 31, 2006 Guten Morgen, ich würde gerne Eure Meinung zu dem Artikel "RISKY BUSINESS Global economy faces a dangerous year" hören: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/HL23Dj01.html Ich zitiere den Schluss, wo der Ausblick für die internationalen Aktienmärkte gegeben wird: Sliding stock markets Economic growth in China is likely to slip towards 6% in 2007. Beijings enormous fiscal latitude will ensure that ramped up fiscal spending will partially offset significant weakness in Chinas US-oriented export sector. Accelerated yuan revaluation against the dollar will help offset the inflationary impact of rising energy and grain prices. Economic growth in Japan will probably fall below 1.5% in 2007 due to export sector weakness. In addition to importing all of its energy needs, Japan relies on imports of US corn for sustaining domestic meat production. This reliance on energy and grain imports will encourage the Bank of Japan to push the yen higher against the dollar to contain inflation. Economic growth in Korea should slow towards 1% in 2007. Growing tensions between Washington and Pyongyang will undermine private consumption and investment while much weaker US- and China-bound exports will slow export sector growth. Like Japan, Korea is also a major importer of US corn. Won appreciation against the dollar will be limited by growing security concerns. As a result, inflation will accelerate, further undermining the won. Economic growth in South and Southeast Asia will also slow sharply. In addition to slowing US economic growth, increasing global geopolitical instability will lead to more frequent and violent terrorist attacks, especially in India, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand. These attacks will produce further political and social instability. Foreign capital flight, driven by much slower than expected economic growth and a sharp correction in US equities, will make these countries Asias worst investment performers in 2007. Economic growth in Latin America will also suffer from the US downturn in 2007. Mexico, where political and social instability are expected to increase substantially while US-bound exports grind to a halt, should follow the US into recession. Capital flight will weaken the peso, preventing exchange rate appreciation from offsetting the impact of sharply higher corn prices on the domestic food industry. Economic growth in Brazil, Colombia and Peru will also slow sharply in 2007. Brazils export sector will benefit from soaring grain prices, while Colombia and Peru will suffer from the same. Equities in all four countries will follow US equities downward. Economic growth in Venezuela, Ecuador and Argentina will benefit from soaring commodity prices. This will not prevent equity market correction, but should underpin exchange rates in all three countries. With the notable exception of Turkey, economic growth in Europe should suffer the least from slowing US economic growth in 2007. Monetary policy in the EU will tighten further, underpinning currency appreciation. Economic interdependence between EU members will insulate the region somewhat from slowing economic growth in the rest of the world. Russia will benefit from rising commodity prices. Despite more promising economic prospects, equities across Europe will follow US equities in a sharp correction. Bond markets around the world are likely to be very volatile in 2007. Rapidly changing economic growth and inflation expectations will produce wide price swings. This volatility will be led by US bonds, which will see falling yields in early 2007 be replaced by rising yields in mid-2007 as inflation increases and foreign capital flight accelerates. Spreads on emerging market bonds will widen with falling equity markets around the world. Commodities, including energy, grains and precious metals, will probably perform much better than traditional investment assets as both investors and central banks speed diversification. Vielen Dank im Voraus Anibaldo Diesen Beitrag teilen Link zum Beitrag
Reigning Lorelai Dezember 31, 2006 · bearbeitet Dezember 31, 2006 von waynehynes Well it's just another economic outlook for 2007. I don't think that 50% of the article will actually happen. Especially because the market has already anticipiated a lot of things for 2007 and the market will already focus on the fiscal year 2008. What's that good phrase from Warren Buffett: I don't believe in economists because I'm not superstitious... Especially the part In addition to slowing US economic growth, increasing global geopolitical instability will lead to more frequent and violent terrorist attacks, especially in India, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand. is amazing... they dare to forecast terrorism... no one can do that but a terrorist Imppov it's just an article to attract attention.. lurid & stupid... I despise writers who try this way to attract attention... Kind regards W.Hynes Diesen Beitrag teilen Link zum Beitrag
Anibaldo Dezember 31, 2006 Well it's just another economic outlook for 2007. I don't think that 50% of the article will actually happen. Especially because the market has already anticipiated a lot of things for 2007 and the market will already focus on the fiscal year 2008. What's that good phrase from Warren Buffett: I don't believe in economists because I'm not superstitious... Especially the part is amazing... they dare to forecast terrorism... no one can do that but a terrorist Imppov it's just an article to attract attention.. lurid & stupid... I despise writers who try this way to attract attention... Kind regards W.Hynes Anyway, it's a scary read, somehow. Abe Diesen Beitrag teilen Link zum Beitrag
Reigning Lorelai Dezember 31, 2006 · bearbeitet Dezember 31, 2006 von waynehynes yes you're right but this was the writers intention... don't give a damn about it... some people think that writers are just doing their job but let I'll let you in on a lil' secret: They learn how to be persuasive... almost every writer (no matter if normal newspaper or stock magaze) is a master at manipulating people... that's why the medias are so mighty and if you know how to use it you'll become the "Medienkanzler" Diesen Beitrag teilen Link zum Beitrag
GlitterGirlie Dezember 31, 2006 Hi Wayne, ich dachte du hättest längst den "Abflug" gemacht? Kannst dich wohl nicht von uns trennen? Hier der aktuelle Flugplan, äh Fahrplan für 2007 Madonna adoptiert Pischetsrieder (EuramS) Es grüßt die Wahrsagerin GG Diesen Beitrag teilen Link zum Beitrag
reza Dezember 31, 2006 yes you're right but this was the writers intention... don't give a damn about it... some people think that writers are just doing their job but let I'll let you in on a lil' secret: They learn how to be persuasive... almost every writer (no matter if normal newspaper or stock magaze) is a master at manipulating people... that's why the medias are so mighty and if you know how to use it you'll become the "Medienkanzler" Ossom, this is the best introduction I've read about this topic since I can say my own name. Diesen Beitrag teilen Link zum Beitrag
Reigning Lorelai Dezember 31, 2006 · bearbeitet Dezember 31, 2006 von waynehynes Hi Wayne, ich dachte du hättest längst den "Abflug" gemacht? Kannst dich wohl nicht von uns trennen? Hier der aktuelle Flugplan, äh Fahrplan für 2007 Madonna adoptiert Pischetsrieder (EuramS) Es grüßt die Wahrsagerin GG I'm on my way sweetheart... verliere ja effektiv nicht wirklich viel Zeit da NYC 6 Stunden hinterherhinkt... Ossom, this is the best introduction I've read about this topic since I can say my own name. are you being cynical?? In diesem Sinne wünsche ich euch heute allen einen guten Rutsch und bis nächstes Jahr.. Gruß W.Hynes Diesen Beitrag teilen Link zum Beitrag
Wishmueller Januar 27, 2007 emfis.de - Asienmarktausblick 2007 (ex Japan) pdf Alles wird gut.... B) Diesen Beitrag teilen Link zum Beitrag
Wishmueller Februar 7, 2007 faz.net - 2006 war exzellent, 2007 wird gut Diesen Beitrag teilen Link zum Beitrag
