U.S. Portfolio

[duarte]

In this thread I will share trade ideas, charts, notes, and some viewpoints.

The U.S.Portfolio is a market timing portfolio designed to get profit with market trends.

The portfolio invests in companies, exchange traded funds (ETFs), leveraged ETFs, and Inverse ETFs listed on United States Stock Exchanges.

In order to see what is going to happen before it takes place the U.S. Portfolio has an important rule:

“All trade ideas and stop loss orders must be sent to this thread, with a minimum of 5 minutes before the next market opening, and automatically placed on the market after the market opens. The orders will be executed at the opening price, except in the case of stop loss orders."

I consider 5 USD per buy or sell order.

The start value of the portfolio is 35 000 USD.

For this work I will use my experience, memory, intelligence, technical indicators, some are proprietary other are familiar to all people as Relative Strength Index, MACD or Stochastic Oscillator, and some fundamental indicators.

I will try my best …

Avoid “end of race” mistakes. If things are not going well I will not put too much money in stock market. Cut my losses instead of hoping that market will come back. Not play like an addict. I will be objective. I will be an investor or a trader, whatever is considered most advantageous in a particular situation. I will control emotions, apply the reason, not repeat mistakes, and think for myself.

That´s it.

I'll start it soon.

[duarte]

I looked for the US stocks on my watch list, and I saw that the great majority is in overbought zone.

 

For that reason, I'm going to wait a little longer so I can get a better idea of what the market is going to do.

[Kaffeetasse]

Good idea, duarte. Mine are also mostly in overbought territory...

[duarte]

A short text about “certainty in the markets and risk"

 

One element that causes us as traders to take losses is our stubbornness to be right. The need to be right in the markets will lead traders to financial suicide. The markets move based on the perception of other traders; whether they are using fundamental or technical analysis, it does not matter. Price action is the collective action of all market participants. You have hedgers, speculators, investors, etc. Do you think it is possible to understand the intentions of all market participants?

 

Trading is a game of probabilities. Losing is just part of the business. The key is to limit your losses and ride your winners (easier said than done) and to do this on a consistent basis. There is no certainty in the markets – just because all your indicators line up and the perfect setup occurs does not mean that the trade will not go against you.

 

So always manage risk appropriately regardless of how beautiful the setup looks.

[duarte]

A few days ago, I had a problem with the computer battery charger, but its ok now.

 

Next week, I´ll start making trades.

[duarte]

Today, the U.S. Portfolio will start.

 

I´ll buy DLPH, RWT, EXH, ERX, XIV, UPRO, and EDC.

 

[duarte]

Below are the annotated charts:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[duarte]

The current U.S. Porfolio

 

[duarte]

VELOCITYSHARES DAILY INVERSE VIX (XIV) reached my stop.

 

The current portfolio:

 

[duarte]

Tomorrow, I will buy again XIV (VELOCITYSHARES DAILY INVERSE VIX)

 

(I will try again.)

 

[duarte]

DIREXION DAILY EMERGING MARKETS (EDC): The stop price has been reached.

Current portfolio:

[duarte]

I will use stop loss orders very close to the current price, while the S&P 500 index remains below 1625.

 

 

Updating of stop loss orders

 

[duarte]

Today, I´ll buy:

 

Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc: (NYSE: TMO)

 

 

Annotated chart:

 

[duarte]

Portfolio:

 

[duarte]

DLPH paid a dividend of 0,17 dollars per stock in 3/13/2013.

64*0,17= 10,88

RWT paid a dividend of 0,28 dollars per stock in 3/13/2013.

125*0,28= 35

35+10,88 = 45,88

I added this amount to the portfolio.

[duarte]

Current portfolio:

 

[duarte]

I've updated the buy price of ERX, UPRO, and XIV.

 

The opening price of ERX, on 12 March, was 64,48 USD.

The opening price of UPRO, on 12 March, was 114,45 USD.

The opering price of XIV, on 13 March, was 22,75 USD.

 

Note: All orders are executed at the opening price, except in the case of the stop loss orders.

[duarte]

Current portfolio:

 

[duarte]

Today, I will buy more ERX and XIV, and I also will buy KRC.

 

[duarte]

KRC annotated chart:

 

[duarte]

Buy price (Average price) of XIV = ((22,75*55)+(23*54))/(55+54)= 22,93

 

Start date (Average date) of XIV = March 13, 2013

 

 

 

Buy Price (Average price) of ERX = ((64,48*43)+(67,30*22))/(43+22)=65,43

 

Start Date (Average Date) of ERX =March 14, 2013

 

Current portfolio:

 

[duarte]

Updating of stop loss orders

 

 

Despite the two negative trades, the first week of the portfolio was slightly positive.

[duarte]

The following stocks and ETFs reached the stop price yesterday.

 

Delphi Automotive Plc (DLPH),

DIREXION DAILY ENERGY BULL 3X SH (ERX),

PROSHARES ULTRAPRO S&P 500 (UPRO),

VELOCITYSHARES DAILY INVERSE VIX (XIV),

Kilroy Realty (KRC).

 

[duarte]

Listed below are two closed trades:

 

[duarte]

Here is a portfolio update: