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US Fracking Industrie

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reko
Posted · Edited by reko

Der US Gaspreis und die Gas Fracker sind seit Freitag stark gestiegen, gestern

NG1 1.80USD/MMBtu

AR +35%, wieder auf Mitte März Niveau

RRC +22%, wieder auf Jan Niveau

EQT +1% , wieder auf Dez Niveau

 

2020/04/06 Natural gas jumps on forecast for cooler temps in much of U.S.

"gas demand in the U.S. Lower 48 states, including exports, will rise from an average of 94B cf/day this week to 100.3B cf/day next week compared to its previous forecast of 97.9B cf/day."

 

2020/04/07 U.S. Natural Gas Output Expected to Fall by Most Ever Next Year

"Gas output is poised to fall by 4.4% to average 94.49 billion cubic feet a day next year,"

 

2020/04/08 Natural Gas Market Starting To Discount Oil Production Shut-Ins

5006891-1586284881679418.png

 

Es wird eine sinkende US-Ölproduktion mit entsprechend weniger assoziierten Gas erwartet (Quelle).

20200408_Rohstoffe.png

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reko
Posted · Edited by reko

2020/04/08 Trump’s Coming Oil Shock: Shale Can’t Cut Enough To Save Itself

Zitat

The reality is this: It doesn’t matter what Russia or Saudi Arabia do. Any possible production cuts are irrelevant in the short term because no matter how deep they go, they are no match for the impact that Covid-19 lockdowns are already having on oil demand and will not raise oil prices high enough to save the U.S. shale industry. 

Furthermore, Democrats in Congress will oppose any bailout of the shale industry

 

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Walter White
Posted

:D

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reko
Posted · Edited by reko

Die Öltanks in USA füllen sich rasant. Sind die Tanks voll müssen Pipelines abgestellt und noch sehr viel mehr Öl und assoziiertes Gas muß im Boden bleiben.

2020/04/17 cushing-tank-top-scenario-makes-for-bullish-natural-gas-price-outlook

Das ist auch für die Gas Liquids positiv "Propane/propylene inventories decline"

eia.gov/petroleum/weekly, ..supply/weekly

crstuss.gif

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reko
Posted · Edited by reko

2020/04/24 Continental Resources halts shale output, seeks to cancel sales

Zitat

The largest oil producer in North Dakota has halted most of its production in the state, notifying some customers it would not supply crude at current .. stopped all drilling and shut in most of its wells in the state’s Bakken shale field .. the company declared force majeure on at least one contract to deliver oil because it could not have foreseen the price rout.

Ich bin überrascht, dass auch niedrige Preise höhere Gewalt sind. Die Aktie steigt!!

2020/04/24 Continental Resources halts shale output, seeks to cancel sales

"Continental shares on Thursday rose 6% to $13.23. They are down 61% year-to-date."

 

2020/04/25 first-shale-oil-domino-to-fall-more-to-follow

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Trauerschwan
Posted

@reko

 

Laut letzter Präsentation 26.02.2020: CLR February 2020 Investor Update
 

Zitat

2019: 148,416 Avg. Bopd; up 14% YoY
• 172 Gross Op Wells Completed
• 2019 Bakken Program Currently Approx. 75% Paid Out
• 18,000 Acres Added to Leasehold Position


2020 Bakken Program
• Avg. 9 Rigs; 175 Gross Operated Wells to be Completed
• Avg. Well Performance Expected to be in Line with
2017, 2018 & 2019 Drilling Programs
• Targeting Additional 5% CWC Reduction

 

Wie siehst du das? Ca. 100k bpd weg?

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reko
Posted · Edited by reko
vor 8 Stunden von Trauerschwan:

Laut letzter Präsentation 26.02.2020: CLR February 2020 Investor Update

Wie siehst du das? Ca. 100k bpd weg?

das meiste davon.

"The largest oil producer in North Dakota has halted most of its production in the state"

Andere Rechnung: ND Bakken = 55% von Guidance 2020 (198k .. 201k bpd)

Bemerkenswert, dass nicht die schwächsten Produzenten zuerst abschalten.

 

In der gleichen Präsentation

Zitat

•Free Cash Flow(1): $350 MM to $400 MM

•Budgeted at $55 WTI and $2.50 HH

•$5 Change in WTI = Approx. $300 MM in Cash Flow

D.h. CLR braucht knapp 50$

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reko
Posted · Edited by reko

Antero holt auf (+400%/Monat), jetzt auf Okt.19 Niveau, Range, SouthWestern und EQT auf Juli19 Niveau: AR vs RR vs EQT vs SWN

2020/04/30 Antero Resources: Management Wins A High Stakes Game Of Liar's Poker

Zitat

Antero delivered outstanding earnings guidance that completely caught Wall Street and the bears off guard.

Management cut 2020 CAPEX guidance by $250 million, to $750 million, and guided to $175 million in FY 2020 free cash flow.

As I anticipated, AR's management deftly bought back a lot of November 2021 and December 2022 bonds ($383 million face value) at an average of $0.80 on the dollar.

AR also bought back 27 million shares at an average price of $1.57 during Q1 2020.

1Q2020_Earnings+Call_Presentation_vF.pdf

Erwartung U.S. Natural Gas

Supply: Near-term potential 6 to 7 Bcf/d decline due to oil shut-ins

Demand: Near-term and medium-term 2 to 3 Bcf/d decline due to pandemic

               2 to 3 Bcf/d decline in LNG exports over summer of 2020 due to cargo cancellations

Erwartung U.S. NGLs ist besser.

“Associated NGLs” in the U.S. oil shale plays comprise ~67% of U.S. NGL production and will decline with reduced activity

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reko
Posted · Edited by reko

Nach Range Resources und EQT hat nun auch Antero Resources eine Royalty auf die Gas-Produktion verkauft. Der Kurs reagiert mit +20%.

2020/06/15 Antero Resources announces $402M overriding royalty transaction

Zitat

.. will be used to repay revolver borrowings

.. Repurchased an additional $196 million notional amount of unsecured senior notes during the second quarter to date at a weighted average 17% discount

 

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reko
Posted · Edited by reko

Seit 2010 wird wieder mehr Gas abgefackelt, 2019 weltweit 150 Mrd m³. Der jährliche deutsche Verbrauch beträgt ca. 80 Mrd m³ (rel. konstant seit 1995).

"with natural gas prices close to an all-time low, oil companies have little incentive to prevent gases from being released into the atmosphere."

2020/08/03 Gas flaring hits highest level in a decade (Pay Wall)

 

"The Texas Railroad Commission last month surprised many: it said it would tighten the rules for gas flaring at oil fields later this year!"

"While the WB notes that not all flared gas can be used for electricity generation, there are other things one can do with it, such as reinject it into oil wells to stimulate production."

2020/07/22 The Beginning Of The End For Gas Flaring

"Zero Routine Flaring by 2030 initiative"

worldbank.org .. 2020/07/21/global-gas-flaring-jumps-to-levels-last-seen-in-2009

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Marfir
Posted

Der Pleitewelle folgt die Umweltkatastrophe: Zwei Millionen Bohrlöcher in den USA sind nicht sicher verschlossen – klimaschädliches Methan entweicht.

Zitat

Die US-Regierung schätzt laut New York Times, dass inzwischen mehr als 3 Millionen Bohrstellen aufgegeben worden sind. Davon sollen 2 Millionen nicht sicher verschlossen sein und Methan in einem Ausmaß emittieren, das den Auspuffgasen von 1,5 Millionen Autos entspricht.

Zitat

Alle Pleitefirmen haben offenbar eines gemeinsam: Sie haben, entgegen den Vorschriften, kein Geld zurückgelegt, um die Bohrstellen sauber schließen und gegen austretendes Gas sichern zu können. „Das ist der Gipfel beim Privatisieren der Gewinne und beim Sozialisieren des Schlamassels“, twitterte der bekannte Klimaaktivist Bill McKibben. Der Londoner Thinktank Carbon Tracker schätzt die Kosten für die ordnungsgemäße Schließung eines Bohrlochs auf 300.000 Dollar.

Wenn das Gesetz nie so gelebt wurde, dann scheint es keine Kontrollen und Sanktionen gegeben zu haben. Auch nicht vor der Trump Amtszeit. Dabei haben die USA genug negative Erfahrung in der Vergangenheit gesammelt...

 

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