T-Mobile US (TMUS)

[herbert_21]

T-Mobile US

WKN: A1T7LU ISIN: US8725901040 Ticker: TMUS

Investor Relations

Index: S&P 500 Branche: Communication Services

Market Cap: $147 Mrd P/E 45 Fwd PE 40 PEG 1,11

Daten bei Finviz und Yahoo Finance und Morningstar

CEO: Mike Sievert  CFO: Peter Osvaldik 

 

Beschreibung des Unternehmens

"T-Mobile US, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides mobile communications services in the United States, Puerto Rico, and the United States Virgin Islands. The company offers voice, messaging, and data services to 102.1 million customers in the postpaid, prepaid, and wholesale markets. It also provides wireless devices, including smartphones, wearables, and tablets and other mobile communication devices, as well as wireless devices and accessories. In addition, the company offers services, devices, and accessories under the T-Mobile and Metro by T-Mobile brands through its owned and operated retail stores, app and customer care channels, and its websites. It also sells its devices to dealers and other third party distributors for resale through independent third-party retail outlets and various third-party websites. As of December 31, 2020, it operated approximately 108,000 macro towers and 69,000 small cell/distributed antenna system sites; and approximately 3,400 T-Mobile and Metro by T-Mobile retail locations, including stores and kiosks. The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Bellevue, Washington."

 

 

 

 

• Auffällig der negative Free Cash Flow per Share (vgl. die Aussage des CEO im Earnings Call) bei gleichzeitig stark steigendes Net Income seit 2015
• von hohem Level ansteigende Gross Margin seit 2016 - im Bild oben eine Aufstellung von tikr.com

 

Aktuelles (Q4 2021 Earnings)

Zitat

 

T-Mobile said fourth quarter EBITDA — earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization — rose 9.6% to $6.3 billion, in line with estimates.

Meanwhile, for fiscal 2022, T-Mobile forecast EBITDA growth of 10% to a range of $25.6 billion to $26.1 billion, improving from last year's 7% EBITDA growth, said UBS analyst John Hodulik in a report.

Wall Street analysts expect T-Mobile to initiate a stock repurchase plan in 2023 or before amid strong free cash flow growth.

 

"Despite a pull forward in capital spending, the free cash flow guide was also stronger at $11.6 billion to $12.6 billion, excluding Sprint merger costs," said Hodulik.

Controlled by Deutsche Telekom (DTEGY), the company expects to add a range of 5 million to 5.5 million postpaid customers in 2022 vs. estimates of 4.66 million. | investors.com

 

 

Auszüge aus dem Transkript zum letzten Earnings Call: https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2022/02/03/t-mobile-us-tmus-q4-2021-earnings-call-transcript/

 

"We are experiencing the greatest growth momentum in our history, setting record customer growth and service revenue growth, all because of the important investments we've made and will continue to make in our network leadership and in underpenetrated markets. This momentum sets us up for a very strong 2022 with plans to deliver another year of industry-leading postpaid growth, 10% in core adjusted EBITDA, and over 30% growth in free cash flow at the midpoint of our guidance. "

 

Über 5G

"We set our sights on getting Ultra Capacity 5G to 200 million people, and the team blew right past that goal, reaching 210 million in 2021. This is no small feat when you consider that it takes roughly three times the number of cell site upgrades to get from 100 million to 200 million."

 

And that gives you a sense of the challenge that AT&T and Verizon have ahead of them. Once they woke up to our 5G lead and differentiation, they finally began lighting up mid-band 5G POPs, but still only tens of millions compared to our hundreds of millions. According to their own build plan, it will take them multiple years to reach 200 million people, and they still won't be anywhere near the depth of mid-band spectrum that we're putting to work across our larger footprint."

 

"That means we'll be able to deliver meaningful customer benefit with very little network capital and opex using existing towers, thanks to our completed agreements with American Tower and Crown Castle. And we're not slowing down. We continue to extend our years-long 5G lead on the competition, and independent network experts continue to recognize this. More than 20 reports from third-party testing firms in the last year confirmed T-Mobile is top in 5G speed and coverage."

[Toni]

Bewertungs-Update nach FASTgraphs:

 

Die Aktie ist leicht überbewertet.

 

 

 

TA-Update:

 

Nach einer Doppelbodenbildung (fett grün) in den Jahren 2010 bis 2012 hat die Aktie einen Aufwärtstrendkanal (dünn grün)

ausgebildet, der eine Performance (blau) von 100% in ca. 3,8 Jahren aufweist:

 

[herbert_21]

 

 

CFO Peter Osvaldik 

"Through our higher service revenues and merger synergies, we reached record high core adjusted EBITDA of $23.6 billion, exceeding the high end of our recently raised guidance. 

 Our growth in synergies have also unlocked rapid free cash flow expansion, which nearly doubled year over year to $5.6 billion in 2021, and it's just the beginning of our unique journey to deliver significant shareholder value. So, let's talk about how our great execution and investments in 2021 set us up for another strong year of growth in 2022. We expect total postpaid net additions to be between 5 million and 5.5 million"

 

Merger Costs 2021/2022

 

Hier geht's um die Übernahme von Sprint: CEO:

"At our Analyst Day last year, we laid out our post-merger plan to accelerate our integration, bringing many of our biggest milestones forward by a year or more. The Sprint customer network migration is an essential part of this integration. At the end of 2021, 64% of Sprint customers have been migrated onto the T-Mobile network, well ahead of the 60% target that we laid out back at Analyst Day. This is impressive in one year when you consider that less than 10% were migrated at the end of 2020."

 

Der CFO meint dazu:

"Our merger synergies are expected to further ramp to $5 billion to $5.3 billion in 2022, primarily as we unlock more network savings, particularly as we get into the second half of the year. Merger-related costs not included in adjusted or core adjusted EBITDA are expected to be between $4.5 billion and $5 billion before taxes, primarily representing network activities. These costs will peak this year as we laid out at Analyst Day, and we expect roughly one-third of the total to occur in Q1 and another third in Q2 and then taper off in the second half of the year as merger-related costs precede synergy realization."

[herbert_21]

Burggraben und Wettbewerbsvorteil vs. Verizon und AT&T

 

Zitat

For AT&T and Verizon, these frequencies allowed them to start the process of building and turning on their mid-band 5G networks, hence the recent coverage.

 

For T-Mobile, on the other hand, these new frequencies are simply additions to their large, existing mid-band 5G networks using the 2.5-2.6 GHz frequency bands. To put it numerically, AT&T turned on 40 MHz worth of C-band 5G spectrum in eight cities, Verizon turned on 60 MHz of C-band spectrum in 46 markets, but T-Mobile has been running roughly 80MHzof its 2.5 GHz spectrum across the majority of its nationwide mid-band footprint. That’s why the previously mentioned speed tests are showing a big lead on download performance for T-Mobile. | Press Release: The State of 5G

 

Vielleicht habt ihr schon gehört, dass es bei der Einführung von 5G Verzögerungen gab, da man befürchtete, Interferenzen können den Flugverkehr stören

Im Press Release aus dem Zitat oben heißt es dazu, man sei nicht betroffen:

Zitat

Understanding the basics of these frequency discussions also helps put the purported airline safety issues in context. Devices in planes (and helicopters) called radio altimeters have been using frequencies in the 4.2-4.4 GHz range for decades. Even though the gap between the first C-band frequencies at 3.7 GHz and 4.2 GHz is enormous from a radio signal perspective, some concerns were raised that interference could occur. Because T-Mobile has been using 2.5 GHz frequencies for its mid-band 5G, its network is not even part of the conversation—the gap between it and what radio altimeters use is even larger.

 

[herbert_21]

Risiken und mögliche Upside Stand Anfang Februar 2022

 

1. Übernahme von Sprint -> deutlich verbesserter Free Cash Flow, Synergien früher als erwartet 

60 Mrd Investition, 200 Mio 5G Kunden, schnellstes Netz

2. Mögliche Aufstufung auf Investment Grade Rating

3. Starke Marke Magenta

 

Siehe besonders die Fragen der Analysten am Ende des Earnings Calls

https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2022/02/03/t-mobile-us-tmus-q4-2021-earnings-call-transcript/

 

Eigene Meinung und Fazit

 

Die Übernahmen sind relativ komplex und schwer zu analysieren, anders als die mögliche Upside und die guten Margen.

Was genau meine ich damit? Siehe dazu die Antworten auf die Fragen von Michael Rollins von der Citi Group:

Zitat

 

"Yes, absolutely. I'll try to give more than a nonanswer to say, Mike. But you mentioned, Mike, on the merger-related costs, and we said out of the guide that we provided, we anticipate about a third of that in Q1 and about a third of that in Q2. And you see that, of course, as you're starting to decommission the cell sites, you're going to start seeing the majority of this cost be associated with that decom.

By the way, and all of this acceleration of synergy that we provided, including beating 2021 and this 2022 guide, we're still projecting the same total amount of merger-related costs, which remember, were $15 billion. I do think now instead of the $11.5 billion opex, $3.5 billion capex, what we'll see is about $12 billion opex and $3 billion capex because the acceleration actually meant some things that we thought would be capitalized and now flipped to opex given the shorter time frame.

 

So that's it with respect to merger-related costs. And those perceive the synergies.

 

So, as I said, as you start decomm-ing the cell sites, in particular, you're going to start seeing the network synergies build in the second half of the year. And those are the things that will give you color around how it develops with respect to core EBITDA. And of course, you have other things such as seasonality and holiday and gross add flows that will affect some of that, but at least color around merger-related cost and synergy developments throughout the course of the year."

 

Das (Kosten von Dekomissionierung besser als erwartet) muss ich alles glauben, kann es aber nicht nachprüfen.

 

Fazit

"Es ist kompliziert"

 

5G zweifelsohne eine gute Dynamik auf - ob TMUS die hohen Erwartungen (siehe Bewertung) übertreffen kann, kann ich nicht beurteilen. Ein Investment in TMUS ist, wenn man auf den historischen Free Cash Flow schaut, schon fast eine Turnaround Spekulation, und bleibt letztlich eine Wette darauf, dass man sich gegenüber AT&T und Verizon nicht nur absetzen kann, sondern auch "2 Jahre in Führung" bleibt, wie der CEO sagt. Eine weiter gehende Analyse müsste die Merger Costs, siehe Grafik in Beitrag #3, genauer prüfen - das ist aber nicht mein Metier.

[Owl]

https://s24.q4cdn.com/400059132/files/doc_financials/2022/q1/TMUS-03_31_2022-EX-99.1-FINAL.pdf

 

[Owl]

https://www.deraktionaer.de/artikel/medien-ittk-technologie/t-mobile-us-vor-milliarden-zukauf-schlaegt-die-telekom-tochter-erneut-zu-20325164.html

Zitat

Die US-Tochter der Deutschen Telekom, T-Mobile US, will laut einem Medienbericht für den Zukauf des Billiganbieters Mint Mobile bis zu etwa einer Milliarde Dollar auf den Tisch legen. Neben einer Fixsumme von 350 Millionen Dollar stehe eine erfolgsabhängige Komponente im Raum, berichtete das Manager Magazin am Dienstag unter Berufung auf Insider.

Umgerechnet wären das bis zu 920 Millionen Euro. 

........

Mint Mobile gehört seit 2019 zum Teil dem kanadischen Schauspieler Ryan Reynolds („Deadpool“) und zielt auf besonders preissensible Kunden.

hoffentlich macht dann Deadpool bald werbung für t-mobile

[Owl]

[Owl]

https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/deutsche-telekom-reaches-majority-stake-t-mobile-us-ceo-2023-04-05/

 

Deutsche Telekom reaches majority stake in T-Mobile U.S. - CEO

Zitat

April 5 (Reuters) - Deutsche Telekom (DTEGn.DE) now holds a majority in T-Mobile U.S. (TMUS.O), the chief executive of the German telecoms company said on Wednesday.

The company reached a majority stake in T-Mobile U.S late Tuesday, CEO Tim Höttges said at the company's annual general meeting.

"We have the majority and are the largest shareholder of the world's most valuable telecommunications company - T-Mobile U.S.," he said.

Since 2013, the value of T-Mobile U.S. has increased by 153 billion euros ($167.44 billion).

The increase in value for Deutsche Telekom's shareholders stood at more than 70 billion euros, Höttges said.

Deutsche Telekom estimates that the benefits of the transaction - between $7.2 and $7.5 billion - will outweigh the costs, which will amount to less than $1 billion in 2023.

 

[Owl]

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/24/t-mobile-us-to-cut-5000-jobs.html

 

T-Mobile US to cut 5,000 jobs as cheaper plans weigh on costs

.....

The carrier expects to incur a pretax charge of about $450 million in the third quarter.

T-Mobile had said in July that it expects wireless subscriber net additions between 5.6 million and 5.9 million.

[Owl]

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4054155-space-x-starlink-first-text-messages-t-mobile-network

Texts from space

Zitat

Starlink von SpaceX sendet erste Textnachrichten über das T-Mobile-Netz

Satelliten senden Datenaustausch und Verbindungssystem über den Globus
Guillaume/iStock via Getty Images

Elon Musk's SpaceX (SPACE) hat bekannt gegeben, dass sein Starlink-Team erfolgreich Textnachrichten über das Netz von T-Mobile (TMUS) durch einen seiner neu gestarteten Direct-to-Cell-Satelliten übermittelt und empfangen hat.

SpaceX (SPACE) hat in der vergangenen Woche sechs Starlink-Satelliten gestartet, die für den Direct-to-Cell-Mobilfunkdienst in Partnerschaft mit T-Mobile (TMUS) vorgesehen sind.

"Am 8. Januar, weniger als sechs Tage nach dem Start, haben wir unsere ersten Textnachrichten von und zu unveränderten Mobiltelefonen am Boden an unsere neuen Satelliten im Weltraum gesendet und empfangen", so SpaceX (SPACE) in einer Erklärung. "Dies bestätigt, dass unser Verbindungsbudget geschlossen ist und das System funktioniert!"

Das Unternehmen sagte, es sei "einzigartig positioniert, um die erste Direct-to-Cell-Konstellation in nur wenigen Monaten aufzubauen." SpaceX (SPACE) plant den Start einer Satellitenkonstellation, die noch in diesem Jahr Textdienste sowie 2025 Sprach-, Daten- und IoT-Dienste ermöglichen soll.

SpaceX (SPACE) hat seinen Starlink-Internetdienst bisher auf über 5.000 Satelliten in der Umlaufbahn ausgeweitet und hat mehr als 2,3 Millionen Kunden weltweit.