ghost_69

Rohstoffe - Nachrichten (allgemein)

117 posts in this topic

Posted

sind die Ergaspreise nicht lokal sehr unterschiedlich?

 

Wie die Preise der Ölsorten auch.

 

Der meistgehandelte Future ist der HenryHub (NG)

Der QG ist der LNG-index-Future, der derzeit gerade noch 10 k$ pro Kontrkat abbildet.

Daneben gibt es noch verschiedene andere Futures, die meines Wissens (wie beim Öl auch) untereinander stark korrelieren.

Ich sehe hier noch den RB (RBOB-Gas Index) und den HP (Natural Gas Fianancial Future Index) bzw. den HH (Natural Gas Last Day Financial Future)

 

Ich wähle stets den liquidesten Wert aus und verlasse mich dann auf die Arbitrage.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted

sind die Ergaspreise nicht lokal sehr unterschiedlich?

 

Wie die Preise der Ölsorten auch.

 

Der meistgehandelte Future ist der HenryHub (NG)

Der QG ist der LNG-index-Future, der derzeit gerade noch 10 k$ pro Kontrkat abbildet.

Daneben gibt es noch verschiedene andere Futures, die meines Wissens (wie beim Öl auch) untereinander stark korrelieren.

Ich sehe hier noch den RB (RBOB-Gas Index) und den HP (Natural Gas Fianancial Future Index) bzw. den HH (Natural Gas Last Day Financial Future)

 

Ich wähle stets den liquidesten Wert aus und verlasse mich dann auf die Arbitrage.

 

 

Ich denke Gas und Öl werden steigen, während der breite CCI etwas korrigieren wird(aus charttechnischer Sicht)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted

Nun bin ich mal sehr auf das Diversifikationspotential von Rohstoffen gespannt...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted

Hier nochmal was zu LNG (diesmal auf dt.)

 

Shell schließt Japans Energielücke

 

Der Ölkonzern profitiert von der Nuklearkatastrophe in Japan durch größere Flüssiggaslieferungen. Zusätzliches Gas soll die ausgefallene Kraftwerkskapazität auffangen. Damit nimmt Shell eine Schlüsselrolle in der Energieversorgung des Landes ein

http://www.ftd.de/unternehmen/industrie/:nach-erdbebenkatastrophe-shell-schliesst-japans-energieluecke/60026333.html

 

und das stand heute in der FT:

post-10422-0-75280600-1300230037_thumb.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted

@Chemstudent: danke für den Link.

 

aus der heutigen FT:

 

Note from the editor

----------

 

Unrest is the price of soaring food costs

The political unrest in Libya and surrounding regions, which has hit global crude oil markets, is overshadowing the other big story for commodities markets: high food prices.

But agricultural commodities prices remain high, with corn nearing the all-time highs set during the food crisis of 2007-08. Analysts and traders fear they could continue to move higher for the foreseeable future, pushing up global inflation.

 

The International Monetary Fund has just published an interesting working paper shedding new light into the political problem of high agricultural commodities prices.

The IMF research study Food prices and Political Instability by Rabah Arezki and Markus Brückner analyses the impact of high prices in the worlds poorer countries on political stability.

It concludes, after reviewing data from 120 countries over the 1970-2007 period, that high agricultural prices are feeding into political unrest. The working papers results confirm years of anecdotal evidence, including the 30-or-more countries which suffered from riots during the 2007-08 food crisis.

 

The paper's relevance is that it builds for the first time a systematic database of countries

and their democracy indeces and internal stability, with a focus on more minor forms of intra-state instability, such as anti-government demonstrations and riots, and income inequality, and then it links the data with food prices. In low income countries increases in the international food prices lead to a significant deterioration of democratic institutions and a significant increase in the incidence of anti-government demostrations, riots, and civil conflict, the authors say. All in all, our empirical results are broadly consistent with the often-made claim by policymakers and

the press that food prices increases put a stake in the socio-economic and political stability of the world's poorest countries.

 

The results will be important for the G20 group of leading economies, which is holding the first ever ministerial meeting on agriculture in Paris on June 22-23 to debate rising agricultural commodity prices and the threat of global food security.

Commodities markets are interlinked more than any time in the past. The cost of food is not the only reason behind the wave of protests in the Middle East and north Africa, but in the end, high food prices

are feeding into political unrest, which in turn is affecting global energy markets.

 

Wenn jemand den Report hat, wäre ich ein danklbarer Leser.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted

Wenn jemand den Report hat, wäre ich ein danklbarer Leser.

Meinst du "Food Prices and Political Instability" ?

Falls ja:

Food Prices and Political Instability.pdf

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted

Hier ist das nächste Grundlagenpampflet

 

wp1171.pdf

 

und dazu passend der Kommentar der FT

 

Central bank's tools cannot fix food inflation

By Javier Blas

 

As agricultural commodity prices continue to rise with corn matching on Monday the record set during the 2008 food crisis central bankers face an uncomfortable choice: to tighten monetary policy in response to food and energy inflation or to bank on the surge being just a temporary problem and focus on much lower core inflation.

 

The dichotomy will be at the centre of the discussions of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England this week. Their response, together with banks such as the Federal Reserve and the People's Bank of China, will shape the macro-economic

impact of the current rally in commodities markets.

 

The International Monetary Fund has just weighed in on the debate, publishing last week a research paper by one of its economists that argues that central bankers need to take very seriously food inflation and recommends, in some cases, stronger policy action jargon for higher interest rates.

 

The paper Reconsidering the Role of Food Prices in Inflation by James P. Walsh says that the experiences of 2003-2007 suggest that the transmission of food inflation into the overall rate of inflation is strong. Moreover, food inflation

is not a temporary phenomenon but, in many cases, is persistent.

 

For policymakers in many countries, food inflation is therefore not something that can be broadly disregarded as a phenomenon only tenuosly linked to underlying medium-term inflation developments, the paper states. Eliminating food prices from core inflation may provide an incorrect picture of underlying inflation trends, especially in low income countries, it adds.

 

Central bankers are in uncharted waters: the last time they dealt with a price shock in agricultural commodities of similar breadth and intensity

was in 1972-74.

 

The arguments in favour of stronger monetary policy are compelling, but the paper fails in one crucial aspect: what can central banks do against food inflation? In truth, nothing. Short of cultivating crops in their own backyards, policymakers are not able increase the supply of agricultural commodities, which depends largely on favourable weather.

 

Meanwhile, they can only modify demand at the cost of sinking the rest of the economy into recession. Food demand is largely inelastic: consumers do often trade down, moving to cheaper food, but that affects only quality,

not quantity.

 

As such, the fight against food inflation will require other measures away from a central banks common toolbox. The problem is largely in the hands of governments, which can take some basic measures. They can step away from export restrictions, cut market-distorting subsidies, discontinue deplorable ethanol policies and reverse decades-long budgetary cuts in agriculture research, development and infrastructure investment. But politicians are mostly interested in finding someone to blame, particularly speculators.

 

More than five years into the food price rally, the G8 and the G20 have yet to show the political courage to resolve the problem and reform agriculture. This is why food prices are so sticky and filter down the rest of the economy. So the ball is in the court of the ECB, the Fed, the PBoC and the BoE. For the worlds central bankers, borrowing from former US Treasury secretary John Connally, is: Our agricultural policies but your food inflation problem.

 

Any further questions?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted

Hallo zusammen,

 

habe hier mal einen Monatsbericht/Übersicht zum Thema Rohstoffe reingestellt.

Ich hoffe, es ist von Interesse für Euch.

 

Viel Spaß noch

 

ordeal

 

July 2011- Commodity Commentary.pdf

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted

ETF-Magazin:

 

Rohstoff-ETFs.pdf

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted

Anstehende Rollvorgänge im DBLCI-OY Balanced sowie im DBLCI Mean Reversion Enhanced (nachbildbar durch DB Platinum Commodity Euro, LU0216467174) im August 2011:

 

Gold vom Sep '11 Kontrakt in den Feb '12 Kontrakt. Aktuelle Rollrendite: -0.49%

Aluminium vom Sep '11 Kontrakt in den Sep '12 Kontrakt. Aktuelle Rollrendite: -3.22%

 

Offizieller Rollreport anbei.

DBLCI OY Roll Report_aug 2011.pdf

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted

Erschlägt einen nicht gerade mit wissenswertem, beinhaltet aber doch das ein oder andere interessante.

 

MarketAttributes_Commodities_July2011-FINAL1.pdf

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted

Im aktuellen Commodities Daily von Danske Research sind m.M.n. recht interessante Grafiken dabei.

Commodities_Daily.pdf

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted · Edited by Chemstudent

Anstehende Rollvorgänge für alle DB-Rohstoffindizes mit OY-Mechanismus im September 2011:

 

Natural Gas vom Oct '11 in Oct '12 Kontrakt. Aktuelle Rollrendite: -12,22%

 

Rollreport anbei.

DBLCI OY Roll Report_Sept.pdf

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted

What drives crude oil prices?

An analysis of 7 factors that influence oil markets, with chart data updated monthly and quarterly

What drives crude oil prices.pdf

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted · Edited by Chemstudent

Passt wohl am besten hierher:

 

Elektromobilität - Sinkende Kosten sind conditio sine qua non

- DB Research Paper in Kooperation mit dem IW Köln. (28 Seiten)

 

Cover:

post-8776-0-33296800-1315828132_thumb.png

DB Research - Elektromobilität.pdf

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted

Nachdem der Release nun mehrmals verschoben wurde, hat es die EIA heute endlich geschafft, den International Energy Outlook 2011 zu veröffentlichen.

Das 301-Seiten starke Dokument hängt an:

Internation Energy Outlook 2011.pdf

 

Für einen schnellen Vorgeschmack zudem eine Präsentation, die auf 27-Seiten einige Themen anschneidet.

Internation Energy Outlook 2011 - Presentation.pdf

 

(Der International Energy Outlook aus dem Jahr 2010 ist hier zu finden:Link.)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted

Anstehende Rollvorgänge für DB-Indizes mit OY-Mechanismus:

 

Sojabohnen vom Nov' 2011 in den Nov' 2012 Kontrakt. Aktuelle Rollrendite: -1,28%

Betroffen sind die bekannten handelbaren ETFs bzw. Indexfonds (liste ggf. nicht vollständig):

DBLCI-OY Bal. (LU0292106167)

DB Platinum Commodity Euro (LU0216467174)

db x-trackers DB Commodity Booster DJ-UBSCI (LU0429790743)

DB Commodity Booster - S&P GSCI Light Energy Euro (LU0411078123)

 

Mastrind vom Nov' 2011 in den Sep' 2012 Kontrakt. Aktuelle Rollrendite: -3,87%

Betroffen sind die bekannten handelbaren ETFs bzw. Indexfonds (liste ggf. nicht vollständig):

DB Commodity Booster - S&P GSCI Light Energy Euro (LU0411078123) -> ggf. bitte selsbt überprüfen, hier bin ich mir nicht 100%ig sicher.

 

Aktueller Rollreport für Oktober anbei.

DBLCI_OY_Roll_Report_Oct.pdf

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted

Anstehende Rollvorgänge für DB-Indizes mit OY-Mechanismus. (Sofern Rohstoff enthalten)

 

Corn vom Dez '11 in den Dez '12 Kontrakt. Aktuelle Rollrendite: +7,76 %

Silver vom Dez '11 in den Dez '12 Kontrakt. Aktuelle Rollrendite: -0,26%

RBOB Gasoline vom Dez '11 in den Jan '12 Kontrakt. Aktuelle Rollrendite: +9,65 %

Lean Hogs vom Dez '11 in den Dez '12 Kontrakt. Aktuelle Rollrendite: +9,34%

Cotton vom Dez '11 in den Oct '12 Kontrakt. Aktuelle Rollrendite: +4,55%

Lead vom Dez '11 in den Dez '12 Kontrakt. Aktuelle Rollrendite: -2,67%

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted

Headlines:

S&P GSCI

- Petroleum Takes Backwardation Control

S&P GSCI Energy:

- Underlying Strength and Backwardation

- 2012 Rebalance and the Increasing Significance of Brent Crude

- Gas Beats Gold

S&P GSCI Industrial Metals

- October Volatility

S&P GSCI Precious Metals

- Along for the Ride

S&P GSCI Agriculture

- Corn and Contango

- Softs: Souring Roll Yield

S&P GSCI Livestock

- Live Cattle Backs Away from New Highs

MarketAttributes_Commodities_October_2011.pdf

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now