Portfolios (DAX, S&P500, Nasdaq, US Stocks)

[duarte]

The overall market direction is up since the beginning of June.

The overall market fall a few days but now went back up and breakout has happened.

The breakout suggests that the market direction continues upward.

I'm still afraid to be buying in the worst month for the markets, but I also don´t want that the market run away without me. My market posture is bullish.

 

[duarte]

Buy alert:

 

I'll startbuying tomorrow.

 

ETFs:

 

ISHARES DAX(DE) (EXS1) ETF with stop at 62,0.

[duarte]

Buy alert:

 

ETFs:

 

S&P 500SPDRs (SPY) ETF with emergency stop at 139,73.

 

ProSharesUltraS&P 500 Fund (SSO) ETF with emergency stop at 57,26.

 

ProSharesUltraProS&P 500 (UPRO) ETF with emergency stop at 81,40.

 

ProSharesQQQ Trust (QQQ) ETF with emergency stop at 67,10.

 

ProSharesUltraQQQ Fund (QLD) ETF with emergency stop at 58,08.

 

ProSharesUltraProQQQ (TQQQ) ETF with emergency stop at 56,59.

 

US Stocks:

 

21STCENTURY HLDG CO (TCHC) with emergency stop at 5,08

 

Sirius XMRadio Inc (SIRI) with emergency stop at 2,45

 

WilshireState Bank (WIBC) with emergency stop at 5,95

 

I picked stocks that are also with the upward direction. All 3 stocks mentioned above increased their net cash provided by operating activities from 2010 to 2011.

[duarte]

I had not seen that the volume of 21STCENTURY HLDG CO (TCHC) is so low, I had already selected stocks by volume but this stock escaped. Tomorrow I will close the TCHC.

[klausk]

Very unique if not headstrong ETF selection: the S&P500 and the Nasdaq Composite ETFs but also (in addition?) their double and triple variations. Do you really buy or intend to buy them all? Or going short one or the other?

 

Your selection is also a bit unusual. I rarely buy stocks under $10 and the TCHC definitely has too little volume. But all three are getting good IBD ratings.

 

What's your thinking behind the ETFs and the stocks? Why these selections?

[duarte]

I had not seen that the volume of 21STCENTURY HLDG CO (TCHC) is so low, I had already selected stocks by volume but this stock escaped. Tomorrow I will close the TCHC.

If the stock had dropped, I would have counted, but rose 6,52%.

The alert was a mistake because stock has a very low volume, I will not count. Let's pretend that I didn't make the alert.

[duarte]

Klausk,

I answer you later, but I would prefer, if you go back and read my first post. I think you didn't read my post carefully enough.

[duarte]

Buy alert:

 

Rentech, Inc. (RTK) with emergency stop at 2,15

 

 

[duarte]

Buy alert:

 

Rentech, Inc. (RTK) with emergency stop at 2,15

Rentech continues to make a series of higher highs and higher lows.

Rentech Inc.'s net cash provided by operating activities increased from 2010 to 2011.

[duarte]

Very unique if not headstrong ETF selection: the S&P500 and the Nasdaq Composite ETFs but also (in addition?) their double and triple variations. Do you really buy or intend to buy them all? Or going short one or the other?

 

Your selection is also a bit unusual. I rarely buy stocks under $10 and the TCHC definitely has too little volume. But all three are getting good IBD ratings.

 

What's your thinking behind the ETFs and the stocks? Why these selections?

Hello klausk,

 

Honestly, your message seems a bit meaningless. In the first post, I did the description for each portfolio and I said that my strategy is trend-following discipline. I usually trade futures contracts, 2x Leveraged ETFs (200% of the benchmark's daily performance) and stocks, but I decided to have more portfolios in the forum, with other ETFs, such as 3x Leveraged ETFs, to have better knowledge about them. I don't know what the IBD rating is, but I like to pick my stocks. I pick stocks with volume over 100 000 stocks per day and usually price under $10 USD, but these are not my only criteria.

[Hasenhirn]

Hi duarte

 

Sorry for being a bit slow, but I admit I did share klausk's puzzlement. Even though I personally have little inclination to trade stocks in this manner (and at the risk of adding another slightly "meaningless" statement): I suppose you could clarify your initial posting by saying that you are observing 8 independent portfolios, of which the first 7 are long/short trend-following with ETFs of different leverage. Plus: you have separate stop-loss limits for each portfolio, which are influenced by portfolio volatility/leverage and your perception of trend strength and risk. Correct?

 

So we would have:

 

Portfolio 1: DAX ETF Portfolio

... uses ISHARES DAX (DE) (EXS1) ETF and DB X-TRACKERS SHORTDAX (DXSN) ETF

 

Portfolio 2: S&P 500 ETF Portfolio

... uses S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY) ETF and ProShares Short S&P 500 Fund (SH) ETF

 

Portfolio 3: S&P 500 Leveraged 200 ETF Portfolio

... uses ProSharesUltra S&P 500 Fund (SSO) ETF and ProShares Ultra Short S&P 500 (SDS) ETF

 

Portfolio 4: S&P 500 Leveraged 300 ETF Portfolio

... uses ProSharesUltraPro S&P 500 (UPRO) ETF and ProShares UltraPro Short S&P 500 (SPXU) ETF

 

Portfolio 5: Nasdaq 100 ETF Portfolio

... uses ProShares QQQ Trust(QQQ) ETF and ProShares Short QQQ Fund (PSQ) ETF

 

Portfolio 6: Nasdaq 100 Leveraged 200 ETF Portfolio

... uses ProSharesUltra QQQ Fund (QLD) ETF and ProShares Ultra Short QQQ (QID) ETF

 

Portfolio 7: Nasdaq 100 Leveraged 300 ETF Portfolio

... uses ProSharesUltraPro QQQ (TQQQ) ETF and ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (SQQQ) ETF

 

Portfolio 8: US Stock Portfolio

... is composed by 5 US stocks.

 

Are you actually trading any/all of these in real life, or is this an entirely hypothetical situation? Perhaps it would also be interesting (and potentially educating) to readers of this forum if you could explain the signals for your trend-following portfolios in a bit more detail. It would also be interesting if you could post the actual buy/sell prices you obtained, in addition to the corresponding stop-loss levels you chose. Only suggestions...

 

Best wishes, H.

[duarte]

Hi duarte

 

Sorry for being a bit slow, but I admit I did share klausk's puzzlement. Even though I personally have little inclination to trade stocks in this manner (and at the risk of adding another slightly "meaningless" statement): I suppose you could clarify your initial posting by saying that you are observing 8 independent portfolios, of which the first 7 are long/short trend-following with ETFs of different leverage. Plus: you have separate stop-loss limits for each portfolio, which are influenced by portfolio volatility/leverage and your perception of trend strength and risk. Correct?

Hello Hasenhirn,

Yes. You have explained very well. Thank you. But, if I said , I´m going to have ETF portfolios, and if the ETF portfolios have different names, is supposed to think that is because they are different portfolios. But, thanks again for having explained so well. I edited my first post and added your suggestions. My first post is important because I explain what I do.

 

Are you actually trading any/all of these in real life, or is this an entirely hypothetical situation? Perhaps it would also be interesting (and potentially educating) to readers of this forum if you could explain the signals for your trend-following portfolios in a bit more detail. It would also be interesting if you could post the actual buy/sell prices you obtained, in addition to the corresponding stop-loss levels you chose. Only suggestions...

 

Best wishes, H.

In the previous post I wrote this:

 

"I usually trade futures contracts, 2x Leveraged ETFs (200% of the benchmark's daily performance) and stocks, but I decided to have more portfolios in the forum,with other ETFs, such as 3x Leveraged ETFs, to have better knowledge about them."

 

In the first post I wrote this:

 

"My second goal is to get better knowledge about some ETFs that i usually don´t trade.(For example: EXS1, DXSN, UPRO, SPXU, TQQQ, SQQQ)"

 

By process of elimination, it is easy to know what I currently trade in my account.

 

In the first post I wrote this:

 

"I determine my market posture through a careful analysis of the charts. I observe the market direction - up, down or sideways – with the S&P 500 index,Nasdaq 100 index, Dow Jones index, MSCI ACWI index, Dax index or other leader index where the stock acts. Acting in concert with the market direction, i increase my odds of success."

 

What I did? I analyzed the ACWI (iShares MSCI ACWI index Fund)

 

"The overall market direction is up since the beginning of June.

The overall market fall a few days but now went back up and breakout has happened.

The breakout suggests that the market direction continues upward.

I'm still afraid to be buying in the worst month for the markets, but I also don´t want that the market run away without me. My market posture is bullish."

 

In the first post I wrote this:

 

"When i expect the market will go up, my market posture is bullish. That means, i´m buying stocks and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). My market posture remains bullish until my "stop" is reached."

 

So that's what I'm doing.

 

In the post 23 I wrote this:

 

"I'll have several portfolios in excel."

 

I'll have that.

[duarte]

I'm thinking about doing the same for Gold and Silver, I trade them too, but I still don´t know if I'm going to do, because it gives me a lot more work.

[Hasenhirn]

Thanks for the clarification, duarte.

 

I guess my confusion was in part caused by your use of the term "usually", which in my book has a lot more ambiguity than I believe you intended. Also, I am afraid that distributing the basic, introductory information across several posts and leaving it to the reader to draw the connections requires more effort than many will be prepared to invest. You are posting your trades and explanations for the benefit of the reader and/or to start a discussion after all, or are you not?

 

Best wishes and good luck with your trades, H.

[duarte]

Emergency stops alert:

 

SiriusXMRadio Inc (SIRI) with emergency stop at 2,48

WilshireStateBank (WIBC) with emergency stop at 6,21

Rentech,Inc. (RTK) with emergency stop at 2,1

ISHARES DAX(DE) (EXS1) ETF with emergency stop at 62,50

 

 

Buy alert:

 

ING GROEPNV (ING) with emergency stop at 7,40

NEWCASTLEINVESTMENT CORP (NCT) with emergency stop at 7,58

 

I picked stocks that are also with the upward direction.

The two stocks mentioned above increased their net cash provided by operating activities from 2010 to 2011.

[duarte]

Rule:

All entries and emergency stops must be sent to this " thema " , with a minimum of 5 minutes before the next market opening and automatically placed on the market after the market opens.

 

 

Portfolio 1: 1x DAX ETF Portfolio (100% of the benchmark's daily performance)

 

... uses ISHARES DAX (DE) (EXS1) ETF or DB X-TRACKERS SHORTDAX (DXSN) ETF

 

 

Portfolio 2: 1x S&P 500 ETF Portfolio (100% of the benchmark's daily performance)

 

... uses S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY) ETF or ProShares Short S&P 500 Fund (SH) ETF

 

 

Portfolio 3: 2x S&P 500 Leveraged ETF Portfolio (200% of the benchmark's dailyperformance)

 

... uses ProShares Ultra S&P 500 Fund (SSO) ETF or ProShares Ultra Short S&P500(SDS) ETF

 

 

Portfolio 4: 3x S&P 500 Leveraged ETF Portfolio (300% of the benchmark's dailyperformance)

 

... uses ProSharesUltraPro S&P 500 (UPRO) ETF or ProShares UltraPro Short S&P500(SPXU) ETF

 

 

Portfolio 5: 1x Nasdaq 100 ETF Portfolio (100% of the benchmark's daily performance)

 

... uses ProSharesQQQ Trust (QQQ) ETF or ProShares Short QQQ Fund (PSQ) ETF

 

 

Portfolio 6: 2x Nasdaq 100 Leveraged ETF Portfolio (200% of the benchmark's dailyperformance)

 

... uses ProSharesUltra QQQ Fund (QLD) ETF or ProShares Ultra Short QQQ (QID) ETF

 

 

 

Portfolio 7: 3x Nasdaq 100 Leveraged ETF Portfolio (300% of the benchmark's dailyperformance)

 

... uses ProSharesUltraPro QQQ (TQQQ) ETF or ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (SQQQ) ETF

 

 

 

Portfolio 8: US Stock Portfolio

 

... is composed by 5 US stocks.

 

[duarte]

If someone are experiencing difficulties viewing this images through Firefox, this add-on fix the problem.

 

https://addons.mozil...imageshack-fix/

 

I'll stop using Imageshack.

[duarte]

SIRI and NCT reached their emergency stop.

[duarte]

UPDATE

 

Trades concluded $

 

[duarte]

I think I'll buy again SIRI, but I still don´t know when.

 

Now, I buy other stocks.

 

Buy alert:

 

8X8 INC(EGHT) with emergency stop at 6,11.

 

DCT INDUSTRIAL TRUST INC (DCT) with emergency stop at 6,46.

 

I picked stocks that are also with the upward direction. The two stocks mentioned above increased their net cash provided by operating activities from 2010 to 2011.

[duarte]

Rule:

 

All entries and emergency stops must be sent to this "thema " , with a minimum of 5 minutes before the next marketopening and automatically placed on the market after the market opens.

 

 

 

UPDATE

 

Portfolio 1: 1x DAX ETF Portfolio (100% of the benchmark's daily performance)

 

... uses ISHARES DAX (DE) (EXS1) ETF or DB X-TRACKERS SHORTDAX (DXSN) ETF

 

 

Portfolio 2: 1x S&P 500 ETF Portfolio (100% of the benchmark's daily performance)

 

... uses S&P500 SPDRs (SPY) ETF or ProShares Short S&P 500 Fund (SH) ETF

 

 

Portfolio 3: 2x S&P 500 Leveraged ETF Portfolio (200% of the benchmark's dailyperformance)

 

... uses ProShares Ultra S&P 500 Fund (SSO) ETF or ProShares Ultra Short S&P500(SDS) ETF

 

 

Portfolio 4: 3x S&P 500 Leveraged ETF Portfolio (300% of the benchmark's dailyperformance)

 

... uses ProSharesUltraPro S&P 500 (UPRO) ETF or ProShares UltraPro Short S&P500(SPXU) ETF

 

 

Portfolio 5: 1x Nasdaq 100 ETF Portfolio (100% of the benchmark's daily performance)

 

... uses ProShares QQQ Trust (QQQ) ETF or ProShares Short QQQ Fund (PSQ) ETF

 

 

Portfolio 6: 2x Nasdaq 100 Leveraged ETF Portfolio (200% of the benchmark's dailyperformance)

 

... uses ProSharesUltra QQQ Fund (QLD) ETF or ProShares Ultra Short QQQ (QID) ETF

 

 

Portfolio 7: 3x Nasdaq 100 Leveraged ETF Portfolio (300% of the benchmark's dailyperformance)

 

... uses ProSharesUltraPro QQQ (TQQQ) ETF or ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (SQQQ) ETF

 

 

Portfolio 8: US Stock Portfolio

 

... is composed by 5 US stocks.

 

[duarte]

Portfolios1 to 7.

 

Is updated with the actual value.

 

[duarte]

I don´t have 2x Leveraged DAX ETFs in the topic, despite that, I prefer to use 2x leveraged ETFs (200% of the benchmark's daily performance). I've said it before. The buy/sell signs are the same that happens with 1x DAX ETF Portfolio.

[duarte]

To use or not to use Leveraged ETFs?

 

There are some people suggest that we should not use leveraged ETFs, arguing that “volatility destroys Leveraged ETFs” or “Leveraged ETFs lose from compounding”, but I think that we must not do as some suggest because Leveraged ETFs are not as dangerous as they say.

 

Let's take an example, suppose we bought SSO (2x Leveraged S&P 500 ETF) and UPRO (3x Leveraged S&P500 ETF) at 7/1/12 and held it through today (9/15/12). The underlying S&P 500 Index gained 42, 67% over that period, SPY (S&P 500 ETF) gained 49, 56% (more than 42,67%), SSO gained 99,91% (more than 2x 42,67%= 85,34%) and UPRO gained 152,85% (more than 3x 42,67% = 128,01%).

 

So, we conclude that, SSO and UPRO reached more than their purposes.

 

It's not always that way. In periods of extreme volatility, Leveraged ETFs loses value, but also gains more value in other periods.

 

The leveraged ETFs aren't perfect but I think with reasonable market timing, leveraged ETFs are a good way to increase our returns.

[duarte]

Rule:

 

All entries and emergency stops must be sent to this "thema " , with a minimum of 5 minutes before the next market opening and automatically placed on the market after the market opens.

 

 

 

UPDATE