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Posted

Der letzte EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report war mit einem Crude Draw von 12,8 Mio Barrels ziemlich bullish, aber man wird sehen, ob das eine Eintagsfliege war oder nicht. Refinery Throughput wird in den nächsten Wochen sicherlich noch etwas steigen, aber Im- und Exporte befinden sich gerade auf einem Tief bzw. Hoch. Es kann daher gut sein, dass sich die Net Imports wieder etwas erhöhen.

 

Gestern ist außerdem der EIA 914 Monthly Crude Oil Production Report für April 2019 veröffentlich worden. 

 

Crude Oil (thousand barrels per day) - Mar-19: 11,916 bpd  --> Apr-19: 12,162 bpd

- ein Anstieg um ca. 2,1%

u.a.

- Federal Offshore Gulf of Mexico um 77k bpd von 1,905 bpd auf 1,982 bpd gestiegen

- Texas um 107 bpd von 4,860 bpd auf 4,967 bpd gestiegen

- Oklahoma um 32 bpd von 585 bpd auf 617 bpd gestiegen

 

Ich muss gestehen, dass ich gerade Schwierigkeiten habe, die Differenz zwischen DPR und EIA 914 zu erklären. Oklahoma und Texas sind die beiden Bundesstaaten, in denen sich das Permian befindet. April DPR zeigt einen Net Change bzw. ein Wachstum von ca. 80k bpd für alle Shale Gebiete und ca. 42k bpd für das Permian. Die anderen Shale Gebiete, die teilweise in Texas liegen (Anardako und Eage Ford), haben ein negatives Wachstum.

 

Ohne den Adjustment Factor kommen die EIA Weeklys auf eine durchschnittliche US Produktion von ca. 12,200 bpd für April 2019.

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Posted · Edited by Trauerschwan

Zitat

January 2019:      Anardako (-48k) / Appalachia (-8k) / Bakken (-69k) / Eagle Ford (-116k) / Haynesville (-2k) / Niobrara (-52k) / Permian (-246k) --> - 541,000 Decline Rate --> + 62,000 Net Change (inkl. New Wells)

 

February 2019:   Anardako (-49k) / Appalachia (-8k) / Bakken (-69k) / Eagle Ford (-117k) / Haynesville (-2k) / Niobrara (-52k) / Permian (-249k) --> - 546,000 Decline Rate (Legacy Wells)

February 2019:   Anardako (+0k) / Appalachia (+3k) / Bakken (+13k) / Eagle Ford (+9k) / Haynesville (+0k) / Niobrara (+16k) / Permian (+43k) --> + 84,000 Net Change (-Legacy Wells / +New Wells)

 

March 2019:       Anardako (-49k) / Appalachia (-8k) / Bakken (-68k) / Eagle Ford (-118k) / Haynesville (-2k) / Niobrara (-52k) / Permian (-254k) --> - 551,000 Decline Rate (Legacy Wells)

March 2019:       Anardako (-5k) / Appalachia (+4k) / Bakken (+17k) / Eagle Ford (+8k) / Haynesville (+0k) / Niobrara (+21k) / Permian (+40k) --> + 85,000 Net Change (-Legacy Wells / +New Wells)

 

April 2019:         Anardako (-49k?) / Appalachia (-8k?) / Bakken (-68k) / Eagle Ford (-118k) / Haynesville (-2k) / Niobrara (-52k) / Permian (-258k) --> - 555,000 Decline Rate (Legacy Wells)

April 2019:         Anardako (-6k) / Appalachia (+4k) / Bakken (+11k) / Eagle Ford (+7k) / Haynesville (+0k) / Niobrara (+22k) / Permian (+42k) --> + 80,000 Net Change (-Legacy Wells / +New Wells)

 

May 2019:         Anardako (-47k) / Appalachia (-8k) / Bakken (-67k) / Eagle Ford (-119k) / Haynesville (-2k) / Niobrara (-54k) / Permian (-259k) --> - 556,000 Decline Rate (Legacy Wells)

May 2019:         Anardako (-6k) / Appalachia (+4k) / Bakken (+16k) / Eagle Ford (-1k) / Haynesville (+0k) / Niobrara (+14k) / Permian (+56k) --> + 83,000 Net Change (-Legacy Wells / +New Wells)

 

June 2019:         Anardako (-47k) / Appalachia (-8k) / Bakken (-70k) / Eagle Ford (-118k) / Haynesville (-1k) / Niobrara (-54k) / Permian (-263k) --> - 561,000 Decline Rate (Legacy Wells)

June 2019:         Anardako (-7k) / Appalachia (+4k) / Bakken (+11k) / Eagle Ford (-3k) / Haynesville (+0k) / Niobrara (+10k) / Permian (+55k) --> + 70,000 Net Change (-Legacy Wells / +New Wells)

 

July 2019:         Anardako (-46k) / Appalachia (-7k) / Bakken (-73k) / Eagle Ford (-117k) / Haynesville (-1k) / Niobrara (-54k) / Permian (-268k) --> - 566,000 Decline Rate (Legacy Wells)

July 2019:         Anardako (-5k) / Appalachia (+4k) / Bakken (+7k) / Eagle Ford (-1k) / Haynesville (+0k) / Niobrara (+10k) / Permian (+34k) --> + 49,000 Net Change (-Legacy Wells / +New Wells)

 

Quelle: EIA’s Drilling Productivity Reports

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Posted

Zitat

BSEE Gulf of Mexico Hurricane Barry Activity Statistics: July 13, 2019 - BSEE estimates that approximately 69.97 percent of the current oil production in the Gulf of Mexico has been shut-in, which equates to 1,332,359 barrels of oil per day. It is also estimated that approximately 55.56 percent of the natural gas production, or 1,544.59 million cubic feet per day in the Gulf of Mexico has been shut-in.

 

BSEE Tropical Storm Barry Activity Statistics: July 14, 2019 - BSEE estimates that approximately 72.82 percent of the current oil production in the Gulf of Mexico has been shut-in, which equates to 1,376,265 barrels of oil per day. It is also estimated that approximately 61.68 percent of the natural gas production, or 1,714.59 million cubic feet per day in the Gulf of Mexico has been shut-in.

 

BSEE Tropical Storm Barry Activity Statistics: July 15, 2019 - BSEE estimates that approximately 69.08 percent of the current oil production in the Gulf of Mexico has been shut-in, which equates to 1,305,558 barrels of oil per day. It is also estimated that approximately 60.58 percent of the natural gas production, or 1,684.20 million cubic feet per day in the Gulf of Mexico has been shut-in.

 

16.07.2019: BSEE estimates that approximately 57.83% of the current oil production in the Gulf of Mexico has been shut-in, which equates to 1,092,920bpd. It is also estimated that approximately 51.42% of the natural gas production, or 1,492.47mcfpd in the GoM has been shut-in.

 

17.07.2019: BSEE estimates that approximately 40.5% of the current oil production in the Gulf of Mexico remains shut-in, which equates to 765,446bpd. It is also estimated that approximately 34.62% of the natural gas production, or 962.47mcfpd in the Gulf of Mexico has been shut-in.

 

18.07.2019: BSEE estimates that approximately 18.78% of the current oil production in the Gulf of Mexico remains shut-in, which equates to 354,985bpd. It is also estimated that approximately 18.68% of the natural gas production, or 519.3mcfpd in the Gulf of Mexico remains shut-in.

 

19.07.2019: BSEE estimates that approximately 13.57% of the current oil production in the Gulf of Mexico remains shut-in, which equates to 256,540bpd. It is also estimated that approximately 14.04% of the natural gas production, or 390.30mcfpd in the Gulf of Mexico remains shut-in.

 

20.07.2019: BSEE estimates that approximately 3.32% of the current oil production in the Gulf of Mexico remains shut-in, which equates to 62,670bpd. It is also estimated that approximately 7.35% of the natural gas production, 204.3mcfpd in the Gulf of Mexico remains shut-in.

 

Der Grund für die Shut-ins ist natürlich der Hurricane Barry. Die EIA Weeklys werden Mitte / Ende Juli etwas abweichen und am Mittwoch voraussichtlich zu einem größeren "Draw" führen (möglicherweise wieder zweistellig), da die Woche vom 13-19. Juli berechnet wird.

 

 

NOC Libya hat gemeldet, dass: ...290k bpd of production at the #Sharara oil field is currently offline. NOC teams are investigating a suspected closed valve/valves in the #Hamada area. A full scale investigation is underway. Production at the #ElFeel oil field is unaffected.

 

CALGARY, Alberta, July 18 (Reuters) - Production was shut down for a second day at the 220,000-barrel-per-day Hibernia oil platform off the coast of Atlantic Canada as crews worked to clean up an oil spill into the ocean, Hibernia’s largest shareholder ExxonMobil Corp said on Thursday. ... ExxonMobil spokeswoman Lynn Evans said the company could not say how long production would be shut down.

 

Und dann natürlich die geopolitische Komponente Iran: Der Iran hat einen Tanker im Persischen Golf entern und in einen eigenen Hafen einfahren lassen

 

 

Das sind spannende nächste Wochen, vor allem, da wir uns momentan in den Monaten befinden, in denen normalerweise der US-Rohöllagerbestand sowieso sinkt. Stichwort "Driving Season".

 

Zu Jahresbeginn sah es so aus: 2019-Januar-04 --> 439,738 Mio Barrels

Höchststand dann am 2019-Juni-07 --> 485,470 Mio Barrels

Der letzte EIA Weekly gab an: 2019-Juli-12 --> 455,876 Mio Barrels

 

Ich werde mir voraussichtlich am Montag weitere Anteile an oder Anleihen von Ölunternehmen gönnen.

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Posted

Der Ölpreis selbst zeigt aktuell leider keine besondere Stärke. Im Gegenteil, es sieht fast so aus, als würde er sich anschicken, in Richtung 50 USD abzudrehen. Der Markt scheint das jüngste Geplänkel im Nahen Osten nicht besonders ernst zu nehmen.

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Posted

Oilfield service firms see grim outlook ahead

Zitat

Lindsay said most of HP's customers have spent more than half of their drilling budgets in H1, and the company plans to exit the current quarter running 193-203 rigs, down from 207 rigs in the U.S. currently.

Klingt nicht so als würde der Fracking-Boom so weiter gehen. Den Frackern geht das Geld aus.

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Posted

vor 1 Stunde von Marfir:

Oilfield service firms see grim outlook ahead

Klingt nicht so als würde der Fracking-Boom so weiter gehen. Den Frackern geht das Geld aus.

 

Ja, scheint so. Bisher hat das auf den Ölpreis aber keinen Einfluss. Am 31.07. kommen sowohl der neue EIA Weekly als auch der neue EIA 914 (monthly) Report und dann wird man wieder etwas mehr Gewissheit haben. Außerdem kommen jetzt reihenweise Q2 Zahlen. Bin auf die Fracker gespannt ^_^

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Posted

January 2019:      Anardako (-48k) / Appalachia (-8k) / Bakken (-69k) / Eagle Ford (-116k) / Haynesville (-2k) / Niobrara (-52k) / Permian (-246k) --> - 541,000 Decline Rate --> + 62,000 Net Change (inkl. New Wells)

 

February 2019:   Anardako (-49k) / Appalachia (-8k) / Bakken (-69k) / Eagle Ford (-117k) / Haynesville (-2k) / Niobrara (-52k) / Permian (-249k) --> - 546,000 Decline Rate (Legacy Wells)

February 2019:   Anardako (+0k) / Appalachia (+3k) / Bakken (+13k) / Eagle Ford (+9k) / Haynesville (+0k) / Niobrara (+16k) / Permian (+43k) --> + 84,000 Net Change (-Legacy Wells / +New Wells)

 

March 2019:       Anardako (-49k) / Appalachia (-8k) / Bakken (-68k) / Eagle Ford (-118k) / Haynesville (-2k) / Niobrara (-52k) / Permian (-254k) --> - 551,000 Decline Rate (Legacy Wells)

March 2019:       Anardako (-5k) / Appalachia (+4k) / Bakken (+17k) / Eagle Ford (+8k) / Haynesville (+0k) / Niobrara (+21k) / Permian (+40k) --> + 85,000 Net Change (-Legacy Wells / +New Wells)

 

April 2019:         Anardako (-49k?) / Appalachia (-8k?) / Bakken (-68k) / Eagle Ford (-118k) / Haynesville (-2k) / Niobrara (-52k) / Permian (-258k) --> - 555,000 Decline Rate (Legacy Wells)

April 2019:         Anardako (-6k) / Appalachia (+4k) / Bakken (+11k) / Eagle Ford (+7k) / Haynesville (+0k) / Niobrara (+22k) / Permian (+42k) --> + 80,000 Net Change (-Legacy Wells / +New Wells)

 

May 2019:         Anardako (-47k) / Appalachia (-8k) / Bakken (-67k) / Eagle Ford (-119k) / Haynesville (-2k) / Niobrara (-54k) / Permian (-259k) --> - 556,000 Decline Rate (Legacy Wells)

May 2019:         Anardako (-6k) / Appalachia (+4k) / Bakken (+16k) / Eagle Ford (-1k) / Haynesville (+0k) / Niobrara (+14k) / Permian (+56k) --> + 83,000 Net Change (-Legacy Wells / +New Wells)

 

June 2019:         Anardako (-47k) / Appalachia (-8k) / Bakken (-70k) / Eagle Ford (-118k) / Haynesville (-1k) / Niobrara (-54k) / Permian (-263k) --> - 561,000 Decline Rate (Legacy Wells)

June 2019:         Anardako (-7k) / Appalachia (+4k) / Bakken (+11k) / Eagle Ford (-3k) / Haynesville (+0k) / Niobrara (+10k) / Permian (+55k) --> + 70,000 Net Change (-Legacy Wells / +New Wells)

 

July 2019:         Anardako (-46k) / Appalachia (-7k) / Bakken (-73k) / Eagle Ford (-117k) / Haynesville (-1k) / Niobrara (-54k) / Permian (-268k) --> - 566,000 Decline Rate (Legacy Wells)

July 2019:         Anardako (-5k) / Appalachia (+4k) / Bakken (+7k) / Eagle Ford (-1k) / Haynesville (+0k) / Niobrara (+10k) / Permian (+34k) --> + 49,000 Net Change (-Legacy Wells / +New Wells)

 

August 2019:         Anardako (-46k) / Appalachia (-7k) / Bakken (-73k) / Eagle Ford (-118k) / Haynesville (-1k) / Niobrara (-55k) / Permian (-264k) --> - 564,000 Decline Rate (Legacy Wells)

August 2019:         Anardako (-3k) / Appalachia (+4k) / Bakken (+3k) / Eagle Ford (-6k) / Haynesville (+0k) / Niobrara (+12k) / Permian (+75k) --> + 85,000 Net Change (-Legacy Wells / +New Wells)

 

Quelle: EIA’s Drilling Productivity Reports

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Posted · Edited by NiccoBond

So schnell kann sich das ändern

 

Oil soars on easing U.S.-China trade tensions

 

 

 

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Posted

vor 10 Stunden von NiccoBond:

So schnell kann sich das ändern

 

Oil soars on easing U.S.-China trade tensions

 

Schon irre. Dann kamen die API Zahlen und der Kurs ist wieder etwas gen Süden gedreht. Wer weiß was morgen passiert, wenn die EIA Zahlen rauskommen.

 

Ein interessanter Artikel zu Shale: The Shale Bankruptcies Continue - Matt Zborowski, Technology Editor | 13 August 2019

 

Zitat

 

The latest two are Sanchez Energy and Halcón Resources, both based in Houston. For Halcón, it is the company’s second time in 3 years.  

 

Sanchez’s voluntary filing on 11 August “follows an extensive review of strategic alternatives to align its capital structure with the continued low-commodity-price environment,” the company said in a news release. The Eagle Ford Shale producer will continue to operate as usual with an additional $175 million in newly committed financing, of which $25 million will be used to repay borrowings and replace a letter of credit. 

 

Halcón voluntary filed on 7 August. The reorganization will eliminate more than $750 million in debt and reduce annual interest expense by more than $40 million, giving unsecured noteholders 91% of the company’s common stock.

 

 

North American Operator Bankruptcies

Year Filings Average WTI price

2015 - 44 - $48.66

2016 - 70 - $43.29

2017 - 24 - $50.80

2018 - 28 - $65.23

2019 (through April) - 6 - $57.14

Total - 172 - $52.35

 

Es sind nicht mehr so viele Fälle wie in den vergangenen Jahren, aber es zeigt doch, dass einige der Shale-Driller höhere Ölpreise benötigen. Mit Sanchez, Halcon und Weatherford (Ausrüster der Driller) hat es dieses Jahr drei namhafte Unternehmen aus der Ölbranche erwischt.

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Posted

Erdgas gefällt mir besser als Öl. Sehr günstig und extreme Shortpositionierung der Spekulanten.

 

Erdgas_20190814.png

 

 

COT Gas

 

Gas20190806_COT.png

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