Deflationsszenarien in wenigen Jahren

[XYZ99]

In our view the case for deflation is a strong one as most of the classic symptoms are present in the U.S. today. Record historic debt is already in the process of deleveraging, and there is still a long way to go. Consumer demand is restrained. There is an excess of labor supply with five people available for every open job. Capacity utilization rates are historically low. Household net worth is far below peak levels. Credit is available only to the most highly qualified borrowers. Money supply has been flat or decreasing despite massive stimulus. All of this is a classic recipe for deflation.

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So far, the stock market has been resistant to a downturn. The consensus believes that the economic recovery is on track, the Fed can avoid deflation, the U.S. is not like Japan, the European crisis is over, the market is cheap, and China has curbed its real estate bubble. For reasons pointed out in past comments, we disagree on all counts and investors are making the same mistake they made in early 2000 and late 2007 when they overlooked key negative factors that should have been recognized at the time.

A new spotlight on Japanese style deflation, Comstock Partners, via pragcap

[XYZ99]

Für einen europäischen New Deal. Stephan Schulmeister: Depression als europäisches Gemeinschaftsprojekt

 

Ist ja nicht unwahrscheinlich, daß sowas notwendig werden wird.

[XYZ99]

Raoul Pal - GMI Describes "The Future Recession In An Ongoing Depression" In This Must Read Report

 

Leicht zu lesen, sehr interessante Einsichten, die Raoul hier teilt. Selten einen klareren & besseren Report gesehen.

Besonders die "Charts to make you go "Hmmm"" sind sehr beachtenswert.

[XYZ99]

Bondsquawk: Deflation Now a Mainstream View?

 

.... It was only several months ago that the in-thing to do was to expect a recovery and the Federal Reserve will be taking measures to fight against the exact opposite in higher inflation expectations. As Bondsquawkers know, we gone head to head with the consensus view and talked about how deflation is the bigger issue given the tremendous amount of slack in resources, namely asset prices and labor. In addition, we have questioned the validity of this recovery since inventory replenishment and federal stimulus measures masked the growth activity from earlier this year. Now with those factors waning, the economy should be headed for a slowdown as long as job growth remains subdued and as households repair their balance sheet that is filled with an abundance debt. The bond market certainly gets it (the same can be said about the dollar) as far as what is in store in the months ahead.