Argentinien-Anleihen

[Aldy_BB]

vor 38 Minuten von mopswombard:

das hatten wir doch schon durchgekaut, da fehlt z.B. der CHF Bonds und keiner weiss, was damit denn geschieht. Die Währung gibts wohl nicht

Offensichtlich zu wenig gekaut.

 

Das Bondboard lebt ...

 

Zitat

Der CHF-Bond wird dort "BIRAF" genannt.
Ist er bei den Ausnahmen schlichtweg vergessen worden da in 20 fällig , in CHF und Volumen zu gering und oder weil als Private Sector aufgeführt

[mopswombard]

Und wo ist der BIRAF in der Präsentation aufgeführt? 

[Aldy_BB]

vor 1 Stunde von mopswombard:

Und wo ist der BIRAF in der Präsentation aufgeführt? 

Nirgends.

Die Tatsache, dass der CHF-Bond ein Macribond ist und nicht in der Ausnahmeliste steht, könnte zu der Schlussfolgerung führen, dass er vom Reprofiling betroffen sein könnte.

Ob die Gläubiger da dann mitspielen steht auf einem anderen Blatt.

[mopswombard]

vor 2 Stunden von Aldy_BB:

Nirgends.

Die Tatsache, dass der CHF-Bond ein Macribond ist und nicht in der Ausnahmeliste steht, könnte zu der Schlussfolgerung führen, dass er vom Reprofiling betroffen sein könnte.

Ob die Gläubiger da dann mitspielen steht auf einem anderen Blatt.

Macri hin oder her, billiger kommen sie doch den nicht neu strukturiert. OK, die Laufzeit, nur in 20 ist ja eh noch nicht der Eisberg. 

[matthias_bb]

The Argentine country risk was lowering 69 points on Thursday, at levels eight weeks ago, given a greater demand for long sovereign bonds nominated in dollars, operators said.

The indicator made by the JP.Morgan bank was located at 1,941 units, after touching at the beginning of September levels of 2,600 points.

"Attentive to the signs about a future debt renegotiation , the bonds could be firmer," said Gustavo Ber , an economist at Estudio Ber.

Analysts claim that these country risk values still mark levels of technical default.

www.ambito.com/riesgo-pais-argentina-cae-mas-100-puntos-basicos-n5059228

Länderrisiko < 2000 bp

Alle Discount Geld > 50

Entwicklung ?

[Aldy_BB]

vor 3 Stunden von mopswombard:

Macri hin oder her, billiger kommen sie doch den nicht neu strukturiert. OK, die Laufzeit, nur in 20 ist ja eh noch nicht der Eisberg. 

Der Kupon ist schön niedrig, eine Laufzeitverlängerung 4-5 Jahre wäre schon im Interesse der Argys.

Auffallend niedrig, der Kupon - irgendwas ist besonders an dem Bond.

Ich finde dazu auch keinen Prospekt.

[matthias_bb]

ambito heute zu Länderrisiko, Marktkommentare, AF zu CFK

https://www.ambito.com/riesgo-pais-argentina-que-se-hundio-casi-8-y-toco-minimos-dos-meses-n5059228

Kann man mal lesen.

https://www.ambito.com/contenidos/riesgo-pais.html

[mopswombard]

vor 14 Stunden von Aldy_BB:

Der Kupon ist schön niedrig, eine Laufzeitverlängerung 4-5 Jahre wäre schon im Interesse der Argys.

Auffallend niedrig, der Kupon - irgendwas ist besonders an dem Bond.

Ich finde dazu auch keinen Prospekt.

Habe heute mal bei einer grossen Schweizer Bank in der Depotstelle angefragt, haben auch keine Unterlagen. Merkwürdig

 

Im neuen Bondboard hat jemand geschrieben, das er New York Law unterliegt. Vielleicht sei dies der Grund, weswegen er nicht aufgeführt ist. 

[Rubberduck]

Google liefert folgendes PDF?? Da steht was von Swiss Law???

www.oblible.com__CH0361824458.pdf

[Aldy_BB]

vor einer Stunde von mopswombard:

Habe heute mal bei einer grossen Schweizer Bank in der Depotstelle angefragt, haben auch keine Unterlagen. Merkwürdig

Im neuen Bondboard hat jemand geschrieben, das er New York Law unterliegt. Vielleicht sei dies der Grund, weswegen er nicht aufgeführt ist. 

Die Macribonds haben auch alle NY-Law oder GB-Law, das kann der alleinige Grund nicht sein.

 

Gefunden habe ich ein Purchase Agreement, in dem auf einen "Swiss prospectus" verwiesen wird.

Purchase Agreement CHF 3,375% .pdf - Adobe Reader, Version_ Signature1,Unterschrieben von Boletin oficial de la Republica Argentina,2017.04.12 09_55_06 -03'00'.pdf

 

Scheint sich um ein private placement an diverse Banken zu handeln, die die Dinger dann weiterverticken durften.

[mopswombard]

Darin steht aber, das es am Payment Day einen Prospekt geben soll. Ich habe die SIX mal angeschrieben.

[ava2]

Bitteschön, das Prospektli 

CH0361824458-arg20-FinalSwissProspectus.pdf

[Aldy_BB]

vor 12 Stunden von ava2:

Bitteschön, das Prospektli 

CH0361824458-arg20-FinalSwissProspectus.pdf  15   4 MB

Danke!

Jetzt ist erstmal Lektüre angesagt.

[Diddi]

Vielen Dank.

 

Da kann ich nach gucken, was ich überhaupt teuer gekauft habe vor einigen Wochen ...

[Friedhard]

Zinsen für die A19FGF sind gestern bei mir eingegangen (ING Diba) Zinstermin war der 12.Okt

[gravity]

IMF: World Economic Outlook, October 2019 ... Fiscal Monitor, October 2019

 

IMF: World Economic Outlook Database (October 2019 Edition) > By Countries (country-level data) > Latin America and the Caribbean > (Clear All) Argentina

                                                   2015     2016     2017     2018     2019     2020     2021     2022     2023     2024
Gross domestic product        (Percent change)    2,731   -2,080    2,669   -2,482   -3,061   -1,281    1,433    2,283    3,100    3,200
Inflation                     (Percent change)      n/a      n/a   25,675   34,277   54,440   50,997   32,260   26,869   22,213   16,977
General government gross debt (Percent of GDP)   52,563   53,060   57,111   86,058   93,301   80,816   76,358   73,961   70,473   68,031
Current account balance       (Percent of GDP)   -2,743   -2,713   -4,915   -5,290   -1,203    0,254   -0,026   -0,461   -0,905   -1,609
ARS/USD              (GDP in ARS / GDP in USD)    9,268   14,778   16,557   28,116   48,495   72,924   89,905  108,252  126,877  146,376

 

 

[bonded]

Traders and analysts sat with Bloomberg News in Buenos Aires over breakfast to discuss markets in Argentina and key points to follow in the short term. Up next are the highlights.

What’s awaited: The day after the vote

The market is focusing on October 28 and is starting to speculate over messages or measures that could be announced that same day, if there’s an elected president by then. The most expected signal will be the one related to debt renegotiation: both the current government and the opposition believe there isn’t much time to face this issue. Restructuring must be quick and probably one of the candidate’s priority announcements. Will there be a “reprofiling 2.0” for peso bonds? Whatever it takes to avoid default: four years without a bond market could be explosive for the next administration. Other keypoints that are expected include the economic team, the details of the Central Bank’s Leliq dismantling plan and the possibility of further exchange restrictions for savers.

What’s under scrutiny: Fernandez weighs ministries

Investors are making their decisions based on the assumption that Alberto Fernandez will be the next president. Big question mark goes to how he will assign ministries after election day. The names on the list are one concern, and another is how many he’ll be distributing.

It would be very good news to have a friendly face at the head of the Treasury, for instance economist Carlos Melconian, the continuity of current Minister Hernan Lacunza or consultant Emmanuel Alvarez Agis. Everyone’s fear is Matias Kulfas. This heterodox economist, who has already participated in Cristina Kirchner’s government during the era of exchange controls, has had a more visible profile these past few months due to his proposals on monetary expansion and interventionism.

Curiously enough, who the next central bank governor will be seems to be less of a concern. Traders imagine a ‘testimonial’ official, fully disciplined and abiding by all measures determined by the Treasury. It’s well known that Kirchnerism believes politics is well above the economy.

What’s scary: Uruguayan-style re-profiling is losing believers

People are starting to lose faith in an “Uruguayan-style” solution for Argentina’s debt problem. Postponing bond maturities is not enough to convince foreign investors that the nation will once again be viable in the long run. The proposal needs to be attractive to bondholders. However, under the Uruguayan-style solution, debt commitments will become pressing matters once again in a few years and Argentina would have to make new adjustments.

 

Mistrust towards Peronist proposals is growing. In conversations with businesspeople, Alberto Fernandez’ advisers put a lot of effort into promising friendly solutions to each sector’s problems. However, when these promises come together, some of them seem to contradict each other. The market perceives that it doesn’t seem feasible to put in practice all the current promises.

What’s worrisome: a second round wouldn’t be good news, either

Traders believe that President Mauricio Macri’s possibility of reverting the election’s outcome is quite slim. Furthermore, they consider that -even under a second-round scenario- the initial reaction could be favorable but uncertainty would not disappear.

Results that would lead to a second round might give way to an even worse fight between both candidates. The road ahead would then be very turbulent: Peronism would have further motives to generate an unstable scenario and that might threaten Macri’s ability to govern. There’s also an expectation that in a reelection scenario, the current president might face further limitations than in the past.

What’s expected: ‘Controls 2.0’, a 60% spread with the blue-chip swap

The amount of dollars held by Argentina to maintain exchange stability is limited. The country’s central bank is watching over every dollar, looking to optimize the use of reserves and foreign currency offered by exporters from the farming sector to supply importers and savers.

 

There’s an expectation that after elections on October 27, the government may start a second version of current exchange controls, that might focus more on purchases made by savers (a reduction of the $10,000 monthly limit?). Taking into account this scenario, the current spread between the blue chip swap and the official exchange rate seems too low and might triple to 60%.

[ava2]

Spannend finde ich eine Gegenüberstellung der Pari Passu-Klauseln von den 2005er Umschuldungsbonds ("New Bonds") mit denen eines Macri-Bonds.

Pari Passu - New Bonds (Disc & Pars):

 

Zitat

Status

The debt securities will be direct, unconditional, unsecured and unsubordinated obligations of Argentina and will rank pari passu and without preference among themselves. Argentina’s payment obligations under the debt securities will rank at least equally with all its other present and future unsecured and unsubordinated External Indebtedness (as defined under “Negative Pledge” below).

(...)

Negative Pledge

Argentina has agreed that, except for the exceptions set forth below, as long as any of the debt securities remain outstanding, it will not create or permit to subsist any security interest (e.g., a lien, pledge, mortgage, deed of trust, charge or other encumbrance or preferential arrangement that has the practical effect of constituting a security interest) in its revenues or assets to secure its Public External Indebtedness (as defined below), unless the debt securities are given equal security or have the benefit of a security, guarantee, indemnity or other arrangement approved by the holders.
(...)

aus dem deutschsprachigen Prospekt der New Bonds:

Zitat

 

Rangverhältnis

Die Neuen Wertpapieren, die dem Recht des US-Bundesstaates New York oder englischem Recht unterliegen, verbriefen direkte, unbedingte, unbesicherte und nicht nachrangige Verpflichtungen von Argentinien, die untereinander gleichrangig sowie mindestens gleichrangig mit allen anderen gegenwärtigen und zukünftigen unbesicherten und nicht nachrangigen Auslandsschulden Argentiniens (wie im Abschnitt „Description of the New Securities—Negative Pledge“ definiert) sind.

 

 

Pari Passu - CHF (20):

 

Zitat

Status

The Bonds will constitute direct, general, unconditional and unsubordinated obligations of the Republic for which the full faith and credit of the Republic is pledged. The Bonds rank and will rank without any preference among themselves and equally with all other unsubordinated public external indebtedness (as defined below) of the Republic. It is understood that this provision will not be construed so as to require the Republic to make payments under any series of the Bonds ratably with payments being made under any other public external indebtedness.  

(...)

“public external indebtedness” means any external indebtedness of, or guaranteed by, the Republic which (i) is publicly offered or privately placed in securities markets, (ii) is in the form of, or represented by, bonds, notes or other securities or any guarantees thereof and (iii) is, or was
intended at the time of issue to be, quoted, listed or traded on any stock exchange, automated trading system or over-the-counter securities market (including securities eligible for sale pursuant to Rule 144A under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or any successor law or regulation of similar effect).

 

(Herv.d.d.Verf.)

 

Zum Vergleich die berühmt-berüchtigte Griesa-Klausel:

 

Zitat

The Securities will constitute (…) direct,  unconditional, unsecured and unsubordinated obligations of the Republic  and shall at all times rank pari passu and without any preference among  themselves. The payment obligation of  the Republic under the Securities shall at all times rank at least equally with all its other present and future unsecured and unsubordinated External Indebtedness (…)”

 

Für mich ist daher nicht nachvollziehbar, dass die New Bonds nahezu auf dem gleichen Niveau wie die Macri-Bonds stehen (Übersicht bondboard.de - Macri ist seit 2015 im Amt).

 

Ich habe die (leise) Hoffnung, dass die 2005/2010er New Bonds bei einer Umschuldung "grandfathered" werden - aber wer weiß das schon.

 

[Doppelpost auch im anleihenforum]

[bonded]

Balanz Research Piece - No Consensus on Argentina

 

In general, we found three views on Argentina: Sustainable without needing a haircut; the worst is already priced-in; too much uncertainty to place a bet yet.

Sustainable: This group of investors believes the Argentinean problem is liquidity and not solvency. The debt ratio looks bad because the economy is coming from a long recession and two currency crisis in a row that led to a collapse in the GDP in USD. Once the country regains some confidence, the peso will appreciate, and the ratio will look better. In fact, when you consider only debt in private sector’s hands, funding needs are less than 2 points of GDP, and the Debt-to-GDP ratio is actually at reasonable levels. Through fiscal consolidation and a positive current account Argentina could easily fund its needs without debt haircut.

Tactical trade: Some investors are betting on a short-term positiveness on Fernandez moderation: if he announces a decent cabinet (no Kirchnerist Ministers), and a friendly approach to the debt negotiation (no hard default), a USD10 to USD15 increase in bond prices could be observed. Otherwise, the worst scenario is already priced-in, as current prices reflect a 60% haircut, which would be enough to make Argentinean debt sustainable again.

Uncertain: Until knowing the economic program, it is difficult to buy the story. There are a lot of risks and no clarity about the economic policy. A mistaken diagnosis or a bad execution could lead to a new crisis and further loses in the GDP in USD. In this scenario prices could fall below current levels.

[bonded]

- The presidential candidate is showing that he already started to think on the transition and that he wants the government to control both the dollar but also the reserves. As he said on an radio interview after being asked about the fall on CB's reserves: 'Is the only think that I asked Macri after the PASO, but they still keep selling. Seems that they are doing it on purpose'.

 

- Argentina’s foreign reserves fell yesterday due to $503 million in debt payments, according to BBG. Argentina made payments on BIRAD bonds maturing of 2021, 2027 and 2046 and this made reserves fell to a total of USD 46.9 bn.

 

Trading Desk Comments:

- The USDARS weakened about ~16 cents in the spot market, reaching $58.31/58.51. Central Bank intervention was seen during most of the session. Total traded volume was $499 mio. Spread between the spot and the BCS continued widening beyond +25%, as yesterday traded around $74/$75 handle.

[matthias_bb]

Cronista heute zu einer Barclay-Studie

www.cronista.com/economiapolitica/Dilema-de-la-deuda-mayor-ajuste-fiscal-facilitaria-un-reperfilamiento-amigable-20191023-0050.html

4 Szenarien zu einer Umschuldung. Worst Case a la 05er Vorgehen. Der IMF würde das lieben imho.

Grafik Exityields, Dept/GDP

www.cronista.com/export/sites/diarioelcronista/img/2019/10/23/dcc241019-006i01.jpg_319329386.jpg

[Aldy_BB]

vor 11 Minuten von matthias_bb:

4 Szenarien zu einer Umschuldung. Worst Case a la 05er Vorgehen. Der IMF würde das lieben imho.

Dann wird Judge Griesa wieder von den Toten auferstehen - und zum Tanz im Bezirksgericht in NY bitten.

Dann hätten die Argys jegliches Restvertrauen an den Kapitalmärkten verspielt und würden wohl dauerhaft am Tropf des IWF hängen.

Freiwillig leiht denen dann keiner mehr Geld.

 

Ob der IWF das cool findet wage in anzuzweifeln.

[bonded]

According to a source cited by Bloomberg, the central bank is considering tighter FX controls after the elections to minimize volatility and loss of reserves. Since capital controls were imposed up to this Monday, reserves have fallen by more than USD 7bn and private USD deposits by USD 5.8bn.

Reuters reported that a group of Argentina’s largest bondholders have begun forming a “creditor committee” to prepare for upcoming restructuring negotiations that will likely follow this weekend’s presidential elections. Members of the committee expected a first-round victory for Fernandez, who they believe will seek a quick restructuring, and are seeking to build a coalition with a blocking majority in order to prevent a potentially painful debt write-down.

[Schildkröte]

Zitat

Bei der Präsidentschaftswahl setzte sich Macris Herausforderer Alberto Fernández am Sonntag schon in der ersten Runde klar gegen den Amtsinhaber durch: Der Mitte-Links-Politiker von den Peronisten lag nach Auszählung von mehr als 80 Prozent der Stimmen bei knapp 48 Prozent. Der wirtschaftsliberale Macri kam demnach lediglich auf 41 Prozent. Eine Stichwahl wäre damit nicht nötig: Für einen Sieg in der ersten Wahlrunde muss ein Kandidat mehr als 45 Prozent der Stimmen auf sich vereinen oder mindestens 40 Prozent sowie einen Abstand von zehn Prozentpunkten zum Zweitplatzierten. ... Der 60-jährige Anwalt war gemeinsam mit der umstrittenen Ex-Präsidentin Cristina Kirchner angetreten, die sich für das Amt der Vize-Präsidentin bewarb. Er wird das Präsidentenamt am 10. Dezember antreten.

Quelle: FAZ

[gravity]

aktueller Stand bei ARG-Wahlen: Präsident ... Kongress