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Argentinien-Anleihen

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Cef
Posted

„Die Zentralbank verhängte noch in der Nacht strenge Devisenkontrollen“

 

Klick

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gravity
Posted

Stand 30.09.2019: Informes mensuales de la deuda > Datos Deuda Pública (Excel)

  • Arbeitsblatt "A.3": von 07/2019 bis 09/2019 sind die Schulden um >30 Mrd. USD gesunken (308.732 - 339.416)
  • Fremdwährungsanteil: 07/2019 = 261.980 / 339.416 = 77,2% | 09/2019 = 247.441 / 308.732 = 80,1%

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bonded
Posted

Emerging Markets Credit Strategy Focus von CITI

Argentina Corporates: Navigating Political Challenges

·         Alberto Fernandez is officially the President-elect of Argentina, but his margin of victory was smaller than the PASO.

·         Corporate price action initially followed the sovereign but since has staged a strong recovery. Argentina corporates returned about 3% in October after a strong rally in September, following a 29% drop in August after the PASO.

·         With elections out of the way some uncertainties are lower but some others remain. We stay Marketweight. While the corporate and sovereign rally has been significant, we worry that markets are under-appreciating downside risks given the looming uncertainty.

·         Hopes of Uruguay-style restructuring have supported Argentina credits. Fernandez has communicated that Argentina will pursue a Uruguay-style restructuring, but we think it will be very difficult for Argentina to successfully execute such a restructuring.

·         Lessons from history: Corporate defaults were widespread in 2002. In the final section we describe examples of how several companies handled the restructuring process.

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bonded
Posted

Argie Law Bonds’ WTD Performance supports the ‘One Jar Restructuring’ Theory

 

As we commented last Wednesday, there is a theory floating around Buenos Aires that Alberto Fernandez’s Team would prefer a quick restructuring exercise that will include the NY-law and Argie-Law securities in a single shot mega-transaction. This format appears more realistic than first doing the local law bonds and then attacking the CACs on the NY and UK law buckets.  This thesis presumes that the net present value of a fast deal in “political terms” is higher than a long, drawn out episode with a default/stop payment along the way that would involve large haircuts.

This more accelerated playbook could be construed as contradicting the outsized haircuts that are implied in the local law (BONAR) debt relative to the NY Law bonds.  In the chart below, we spotlight how the “one pot idea” for all of Argentina’s sovereign debt has fueled the short-term pop in the Argie law bonds.  In particular, the DICA 2033 (AR) spiked +9.3% while the Bonar 2024 jumped +7.1%.  We have to accept that some of this upside is linked to Blue Chip Swap trading, but the firmness is notable. While it is still early days, we thought it would be useful to highlight on these movements as part of normal monitoring process.

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gravity
Posted

Stand 31.10.2019: Informes mensuales de la deuda > Datos Deuda Pública (Excel)

  • Arbeitsblatt "A.3": von 07/2019 bis 10/2019 sind die Schulden um >30 Mrd. USD gesunken (307.949 - 339.420)
  • Fremdwährungsanteil: 07/2019 = 261.984 / 339.420 = 77,2% | 10/2019 = 247.197 / 307.949 = 80,3%

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gravity
Posted · Edited by gravity

Erste PK des neuen Finanzministers Martín Guzmán:

Qué va a pasar con el límite de compra de USD 200, la inflación, el dinero del FMI y otras definiciones claves del nuevo ministro de Economía

 

Akademische Präsentation von Herrn Guzmán vom 19.11.2019: Sovereign debt crises resolution: will this time be different?

  • Reprofiling with private bondholders: No debt service in 2020-2021 (extension of maturities and reprofiling of interest)
  • Debtor negotiates in good faith: No debt default in December 2019 & Proposal aligned with goal of restoring debt sustainability
  • Deadline for achieving a successful reprofiling along these lines: March 2020

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gravity
Posted

Stand 30.11.2019: Informes mensuales de la deuda > Datos Deuda Pública (Excel)

  • Arbeitsblatt "A.3": von 07/2019 bis 11/2019 sind die Schulden um >30 Mrd. USD gesunken (308.766 - 339.420)
  • Fremdwährungsanteil: 07/2019 = 261.984 / 339.420 = 77,2% | 11/2019 = 246.054 / 308.766 = 79,7%

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gravity
Posted · Edited by gravity

Argentina postpones payments on short-term debt 'Letes'

Zitat

The Argentine government said in an official decree published on Friday that it will postpone the payments on short-term debt known as “Letes” until Aug. 31, 2020.

 

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ceekay74
Posted

Argentina Downgraded To 'SD' On Short-Term Debt Maturity Extension; Long-Term Issue Ratings Lowered To 'CC' From 'CCC-'

Zitat

Overview

  • The administration of President Alberto Fernandez announced on Dec. 19, 2019, a unilateral extension (until August 2020) of U.S. dollar-denominated short-term paper (Letes) held by private-sector market participants.
  • This constitutes default under our criteria, and we are lowering the foreign currency long-term sovereign credit rating on Argentina to 'SD' from 'CCC-' and the short-term rating to 'D' from 'C'.
  • We are also lowering the local currency long-term sovereign credit rating to 'CC' from 'CCC-', given the heightened prospects for restructuring all long-term debt soon. We also affirmed the local currency short-term sovereign credit rating at 'C'.
  • Uncertainty about the government's broader strategy and its intention to make timely payment on peso-denominated debt due in the coming weeks will inform when we could raise the sovereign credit rating from 'SD'.

Rating Action

On Dec. 20, 2019, S&P Global Ratings lowered its foreign currency sovereign credit ratings on Argentina to 'SD/D' from a long-term rating of 'CCC-' and a short-term rating of 'C' (our criteria does not distinguish between short or long-term when there is a default). We lowered the local currency long-term sovereign credit rating to 'CC' from 'CCC-' and affirmed the local currency short-term sovereign credit rating at 'C'. The outlook on the local currency long-term sovereign credit rating is negative. (...)

 

Rationale

Amid ongoing financial distress in the Argentine economy and as the new administration of President Alberto Fernandez formulates and outlines its economic strategy, the government unilaterally extended the maturity of all short-term dollar-denominated paper on Dec. 19. Under our distressed exchange criteria, and in particular for entities rated in the 'CCC' category, the extension of the maturities of the short-term debt with no compensation constitutes a default. Since the new terms became effective immediately, the default on these short-term instruments has effectively been cured. However, uncertainty remains about the government's broader debt management strategy, and in particular that for peso-denominated obligations that come due over the next few weeks. Clarity on this strategy and any potential restructuring of these obligations will help determine when we could raise the sovereign credit rating from 'SD'.

 

The downgrade of the local currency long-term sovereign credit rating and the long-term issue ratings on Argentina to 'CC' from 'CCC-' reflects heightened vulnerability of a distressed debt exchange as the Fernandez Administration has signaled its plans to advance a restructuring, the terms of which are unknown, of its long-term debt with the private sector. This action is in line with our 'CCC' rating criteria and distressed exchange criteria; it could entail an extension of maturities, which will not be compensated by the issuer, or a reduction in the face value of debt. Alternatively, there are risks associated with failure to advance with a timely debt renegotiation, raising the possibility of missing principal or interest payments amid ongoing stressed market dynamics.

 

We affirmed our transfer and convertibility assessment at 'B-'. The transfer and convertibility assessment remains higher than the sovereign rating because the government continues to signal its intention that the tightened capital controls will not apply to principal and interest payments. However, we may lower our transfer and convertibility assessment if, in our view, capital controls are likely to become more severe.

 

The heightened vulnerabilities of Argentina's credit profile stem from the deterioration of its financial environment, the absence of confidence in the financial markets in policy initiatives, and the challenges of the Treasury in rolling over short-term debt with the private sector.

 

Debt dynamics remain stressed amid a depreciated exchange rate, high inflation, and a deep economic recession.

 

These factors have stressed capacity to pay, leading to a second maturity extension of short-term debt in less than four months; the prior administration reprofiled short-term debt on Aug. 29, 2019. We continue to expect a restructuring of the sovereign's long-term debt in the coming months as the Fernandez Administration outlines its economic and debt management plan. (...)

 

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ceekay74
Posted

Fitch Downgrades Argentina to 'RD'

Zitat

Fitch Ratings - New York - 20 December 2019:

 

Fitch Ratings has downgraded Argentina's Long-Term Foreign Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDRs) to 'RD' from 'CC', and Short-Term Foreign Currency IDR to 'RD' from 'C'.

 

Key Rating Drivers

The downgrade of Argentina's Long-Term Foreign Currency ratings to 'RD' follows the government's unilateral extension on December 19 of repayment of short-term dollar-denominated treasury bills (Letes) issued under local law. In accordance with Fitch criteria, Argentina has defaulted on its sovereign obligations, and this development constitutes a "distressed debt exchange" (DDE).

 

On December 19, the government of Argentina issued an executive decree to delay repayments of short-term USD-denominated debt instruments (Letes) coming due in the coming months until Aug. 31, 2020. The new administration of President Alberto Fernandez, which took office on December 10 after a first-round victory in October elections, indicated that this step has been taken as part of a broader set of emergency measures to manage an ongoing economic crisis.

 

Fitch has deemed the maturity extension to be a 'distressed debt exchange' (DDE) in line with its published Sovereign Rating Criteria, given that it entails a material reduction in terms, and has been taken to avoid a traditional payment default, albeit unilaterally via presidential decree rather than a negotiation with creditors. Fitch deems that the decree also effectively concludes the DDE and will upgrade Argentina's Foreign Currency IDRs to a level appropriate for its debt service payment prospects on a forward-looking basis.

This follows a similar exercise taken on August 28, when the authorities unilaterally extended repayments of short-term debt instruments (both foreign and local currency) into instalments over the six months following their original maturity dates. At that time, Fitch downgraded Argentina's IDRs to 'RD' and subsequently upgraded them to 'CC'.

 

Fitch has affirmed the issue ratings on Argentina's senior unsecured foreign currency bonds at 'CC', Long-Term Local Currency IDR at 'CC', and Short-Term Local-Currency IDR at 'C', given that the maturity extension announced on December 19 did not apply to foreign currency bonds rated by Fitch or to short-term or long-term local currency instruments.

 

The 'CC' rating indicates a high probability of a DDE or traditional payment default on these securities. The Fernandez administration has announced its intention to pursue a re-profiling of long-term bonds issued under both local and foreign law early in 2020. However, risks of a traditional payment default or another unilateral change in the terms of local-law debt cannot be ruled out, given persisting uncertainty regarding the path forward for negotiations with holders of both local- and foreign-law bonds ahead of a hump in debt service payments in early 2020. (...)

 

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Cit
Posted

Mit Ansage: Fitch Upgrades Argentina to 'CC' (23.12.19)

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gravity
Posted

Via Bundesanzeiger bietet Moritz Mueller (London) für WKN A0VTZ1 | A0DUDC | A0DUDG | A0VTZV jeweils 35,3% und für WKN A0DUDM (EUR-GDP-Kicker) 1%

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Life_in_the_sun
Posted
vor 7 Stunden von gravity:

Via Bundesanzeiger bietet Moritz Mueller (London) für WKN A0VTZ1 | A0DUDC | A0DUDG | A0VTZV jeweils 35,3% und für WKN A0DUDM (EUR-GDP-Kicker) 1%

Der Moritz Müller, London dessen Fax in Köln steht ?

Gibt halt immer wieder solche Spezialisten die mit solchen Aktionen Kurse manipulieren wollen.

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Schildkröte
Posted · Edited by Schildkröte
Zitat

Der Internationale Währungsfonds (IMF) ... hält die Verbindlichkeiten des südamerikanischen Landes für nicht mehr tragbar und empfiehlt daher einen Schuldenschnitt. Es brauche einen «bedeutenden Beitrag von privaten Gläubigern» ... Die Schulden Argentiniens seien inzwischen angesichts eines fallenden Wechselkurses und einer steigender Zinslast auf fast 90% der Wirtschaftsleistung angewachsen

Quelle: NZZ

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gravity
Posted · Edited by gravity

Investors consider it almost impossible for the 2005 swap bonds to enter the new debt renegotiation (Google-Übersetzung)

Zitat

These are the titles Discount and Par. In order to restructure them, a special majority of 85% of the holders is required. They cannot be defaulted without affecting the rest of the debt

... gilt auch für die "2005 swap bonds" der PBA.

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Pensionist
Posted

Die Deutsche Bank hat heute bei  mir die Zinsen per 31.03.2020 der A0DUDC ( ISIN: XS0205537581) für das abgelaufene Halbjahr in Höhe von 1,69% eingebucht, die comdirectbank bisher nicht.

Allerdings habe ich auch bis zur Stunde keinerlei Informationen zu dieser Anleihe über die DB oder die Codi erhalten.

Gibt es hier neue Nachrichten seitens Argentinien?

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Marius
Posted

ja, sie haben gezahlt

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Pensionist
Posted

Herzlichen Dank für die Info oben. Dann wird wohl auch die Codi die Zinsen noch einbuchen, die scheinen immer etwas länger zu brauchen.....

 

Jetzt bin ich mal gespannt auf die per 15.05.2020 anstehende Zinszahlung für die Prov. Buenos Aires Anleihe A0GJKR/ XS0234082872.

Auch für diese Anleihe habe ich bisher keine Mitteilung seitens der Bank re Umschuldung oder Ähnliches bekommen.

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Marius
Posted

du verwechselt PBA mit Argentinien

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Pensionist
Posted

Eigentlich verwechsele ich das nicht, habe aber meine Frage im PBA Thread wiederholt, wenn die Regeln hier so strikt sind....

Es ist ja möglicherweise so, dass diese Anleihen anders als die nach 2005 aufgelegten bzw. nicht schon einmal umgetauschten Anleihen behandelt werden.

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Schildkröte
Posted
Zitat

Die Regierung veröffentlichte am Montag ein Dekret, nach dem in diesem Jahr anstehende Zahlungen auf Dollar-Anleihen, die nach lokalen Gesetzen ausgegeben wurden, auf das kommende Jahr verschoben werden. ... nach lokalen Medienberichten geht es dabei um bis zu zehn Milliarden US-Dollar. Keine Angaben machte die Regierung ... über im Ausland angehäufte Schulden.

Quelle: finanzen.net

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konstant
Posted · Edited by konstant

weiß einer, warum in der Liste der "securities that are the subject of the Bondholder Identification"  https://bonds.morrowsodali.com/argentina nicht alle Argentinische USD-Anleihen aufgelistet werden? z.B. die Anleihe ARARGE03H413 (2019/24) wird dort nicht aufgelistet. Bedeutet das, dass diese Anleihen nicht restrukturiert werden sollen?

 

Außerdem hat zwar Moodys neulich das Rating der Quasi-sovereigns wie Edenor (z.B. USP3710FAJ32) verschlechtert. Aber soweit mir bekannt, wird eine Restrukturierung deren Anleihen nirgendwo ausdrücklich thematisiert?

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